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UK CPI data to be released soon; GBP/USD technical outlook still needs to be monitored
The GBP/USD currency pair is currently stuck in a range-bound consolidation. Traders should closely monitor two key economic data releases scheduled for this week — UK inflation data and the US employment report.
UK CPI Data Outlook Analysis
On Wednesday at 07:00 London time, the UK will release October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data. The market generally expects core CPI to modestly decline from 3.5% to 3.4%, while overall CPI is forecasted to decrease from 3.8% to 3.6%. Notably, the month-over-month CPI for October is expected to rise from zero to 0.4%, which could provide some support to the pound.
The delayed US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is scheduled for release on Thursday, covering data for September. Although this figure is somewhat lagging, it remains one of the few important indicators ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on December 10.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
From the candlestick chart, after a significant decline in November, the GBP/USD has shown signs of stabilization. Currently, the price hovers around 1.3150. The currency pair is trading below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating that the overall technical outlook remains bearish.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold territory but remains below the 50 level, suggesting limited recovery strength and a lack of clear direction. The stochastic oscillator has generated an upward crossover signal, but its position remains near the midline, consistent with the current sideways consolidation.
Key Range and Trading Tips for the Near Future
The GBP/USD lacks clear upward momentum after this rebound. The short-term trading range is approximately between 1.3010 and 1.3200. A break above 1.3200 would be an important signal confirming a rebound, while a break below 1.3010 could indicate the continuation of a downtrend. Investors should cautiously assess their positions ahead of the UK CPI and US NFP data releases, and consider entering the market once the trend becomes clearer.