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The end-of-year market trend is indeed quite interesting. Ethereum's performance over the past couple of days has been somewhat sluggish, and yesterday's short positions were expected. Do you feel that with the Christmas holiday this week, market participation has noticeably decreased, with less volatility and a generally dull atmosphere? Short-term traders might consider trying small positions to test the waters; if it feels uninteresting, taking a break for a couple of days might be better, as the real market move could start after Christmas.
From a technical perspective, Ethereum's four-hour candlestick chart has been trending downward recently, with continuous bearish candles since December 22, and the highs are gradually decreasing. On the daily chart, there are many long upper shadows, especially on the 23rd, indicating significant selling pressure above. In the four-hour cycle, the MACD's DIF and DEA are both oscillating below the zero line, showing that bearish momentum is accumulating. However, the histogram shows signs of shortening, hinting at a possible short-term rebound.
The RSI has now reached 42.72, which is a weak signal and has not entered the oversold zone, suggesting the market still leans bearish. The three EMA lines—7, 30, and 120—are clearly arranged in a bearish pattern, with the 7-line recently crossing below the 30-line quickly, indicating short-term resistance. The price is currently below all moving averages, confirming that the overall trend remains bearish. Trading volume on the 24th significantly shrank compared to previous days, reflecting a more cautious market sentiment. On the 23rd, there was a volume-driven decline, with bears fully in control and funds continuing to flow out.
Based on these signals, consider short positions around 2930 to 2940, targeting levels at 2900, 2870, and 2850. It’s advisable to keep positions light, as year-end volatility can lead to unexpected moves.