Can the fifty-year gold bull market continue? Analyzing the next wave of gold price trends from the geopolitical situation

Since the start of 2025, gold prices have repeatedly hit record highs, and market sentiment is extremely bullish. Some say that gold has experienced the most spectacular bull run in the past fifty years, but the question is: Can this rally continue? Will gold still be so valuable in the next fifty years?

To answer this question, we need to first review the history of gold.

Undervalued Gold: Up 120 Times in Fifty Years

The story begins in 1971. That year, U.S. President Nixon announced the suspension of the dollar’s convertibility to gold, breaking the Bretton Woods system that had been in place for decades. Since then, gold was no longer a rigid reserve asset but gradually evolved into a market-oriented commodity.

At the moment of detachment, gold was worth only $35 per ounce. By 2025, the price has soared to around $4,300. Over fifty years, gold has increased by more than 120 times. This achievement is even more impressive than the Dow Jones Index, which rose 51 times during the same period.

The performance in 2024 was even more exaggerated — gold surged over 104%, reaching a peak of $4,300 per ounce in 2025, breaking numerous records. In just this year and a half, from $2,690 at the start of the year to now, the increase has been over 56%.

Four Major Bull Phases in Gold’s Historical Price Chart: Each with Its Story

Looking closely at the fifty-year trend of gold prices, it can be summarized into four distinct bullish cycles, each corresponding to major global events.

First wave (1970-1975): Trust Crisis After Detachment
The dollar moved from the gold standard to fiat currency, causing panic among the public — does this stuff still have value? People preferred to hold gold instead of trusting the dollar. Coupled with the oil crisis, gold rose from $35 to $183, an increase of over 400%. However, once people realized the dollar was still quite useful, gold prices retraced to around the hundred-dollar mark.

Second wave (1976-1980): The Ultimate Catalyst of Geopolitical Events
The Iran hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan triggered a second Middle Eastern oil crisis, plunging the global economy into turmoil. Inflation soared, and gold prices jumped from $104 to over $850, an increase of more than 700%. But bubbles burst eventually, and after the crisis was resolved, gold prices rapidly declined, fluctuating in the $200-$300 range for the next 20 years.

Third wave (2001-2011): Terrorism and Financial Crisis Era
The 9/11 attacks redefined the geopolitical landscape. The U.S. printed money wildly, lowered interest rates, and issued bonds for the War on Terror, causing housing prices to soar. Later, rate hikes triggered the 2008 financial crisis, and the Fed launched QE to rescue the market. Gold soared from $260 to $1,921, marking a decade-long bull market. The peak was reached after the European debt crisis in 2011, before prices began to adjust.

Fourth wave (2015-present): Central Banks, Wars, and De-dollarization
Negative interest rates in Japan and Europe, frantic QE by the Fed, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the Red Sea crisis — these factors combined to push gold steadily above $2,000. Entering 2024, geopolitical tensions intensified, with the Middle East escalating, trade protectionism rising, the dollar index weakening, and global stocks volatile — all continuously driving gold prices to new highs.

Is Gold Suitable for Long-term Holding? Here Is the Real Answer

Many people imagine gold as a “never-falling treasure,” but reality is more complex.

It’s true that gold is a good investment, but only within a certain time frame. Looking at the past fifty years, the 120-fold increase has indeed outperformed most assets. However, during the same period, the stock market’s 50-fold growth was based on continuous corporate innovation, whereas gold is entirely different — its gains come from price differentials, with no yield or dividends.

Even more painfully, between 1980 and 2000, gold hovered between $200 and $300, yielding essentially zero return for investors. How many twenty-year periods can one afford to waste?

Therefore, gold’s true role should be: when a clear bullish trend is present, it is an excellent swing trading instrument; but simply buying and holding, unless you’re willing to wait for decades for a historical opportunity, will yield very dull returns.

Another important rule: after each bullish cycle, although gold prices may sharply retrace, long-term lows tend to be higher than the previous lows. This means that gold will not crash to “worthless,” but will set a new bottom at higher levels.

Gold, Stocks, and Bonds: The Game Rules Are Completely Different

Investors often confuse these three asset classes, but their profit mechanisms are fundamentally different.

Gold relies on price differences. Buy low, sell high, with no other income source. That’s why trading gold can be more difficult — it requires precise judgment of trend reversals.

Bonds rely on coupon payments. Buying bonds provides fixed income, with the lowest difficulty. The downside is that they are vulnerable during inflation periods.

Stocks depend on corporate growth. Choosing the right companies allows investors to enjoy long-term dividends from business expansion. The most difficult but with the greatest potential.

In terms of returns over the last thirty years, stocks have outperformed gold, which in turn outperformed bonds. But over fifty years, gold has actually surpassed stocks.

The key investment logic is: allocate stocks during economic growth, and shift to gold during economic downturns.

When the economy is good, companies profit, stocks are favored, and gold is less attractive. When the economy is poor, gold’s value-preserving qualities shine, and safe-haven funds flock in. This explains why gold has continued to rise in recent years — increasing global uncertainty has led central banks and institutional investors to stockpile gold reserves.

Will Gold Continue to Rise Like This in the Next Fifty Years?

This is the most critical question.

Looking at the trends in 2024-2025, some clues can be found. Escalating Middle East tensions, recurring Russia-Ukraine conflicts, aggressive U.S. trade policies, a weakening dollar, and increasing central bank gold holdings — all point to one conclusion: short-term support for gold still exists.

But what about the long-term? It depends on several major variables: whether the global economy can recover growth, if geopolitical conflicts can ease, and whether the dollar’s international dominance will further weaken.

Perhaps in the next fifty years, gold will no longer increase 120 times, but given rising extraction costs, normalized inflation expectations, and persistent central bank demand, gold as a key asset allocation component should maintain an upward long-term trend.

The safest approach is: dynamically adjust between stocks, bonds, and gold based on economic cycles and personal risk tolerance. When the situation is uncertain, allocate a certain proportion of gold. When the economy recovers, gradually shift towards stocks. Only then can you both seize profit opportunities amid market fluctuations and safeguard your assets.