📍US GDP in Q3/2025 shatters all negative forecasts

Specifically, US GDP in Q3 grew strongly by +4.3% QoQ, surpassing the +3.3% forecast and higher than the +3.8% of Q2. However, the GDP structure shows an unbalanced picture.

📌 The main driver remains consumption
- Consumption +3.5% QoQ, contributing more than half to the total 4.3% GDP.
- About 60% of which comes from services, especially healthcare and insurance.
- Goods are no longer the pillar.

📌 Net trade is a bright spot:
- Trade contribution +1.59bps.
- Exports +8.8% QoQ, reversing from -1.8% in Q2.
- Imports -4.7% QoQ compared to -29.3% in Q2 and +38% in Q1.
-> Reduced imports help GDP growth.

📌 AI investment disappears
- Private investment is negative -0.3% QoQ as AI investment nearly vanishes.
- Other sectors expand slightly, not enough to create a new capex cycle.
- Housing continues negative at -5.1% QoQ, with no improvement.

📌 Government spending rebounds
- +2.2% QoQ, after Q2 decreased by -0.1%.
- Contributes, but no longer the main driving force like in 2024.

📌 The bottleneck lies in income
- GDI only +2.4%, much lower than GDP.
- Average (GDP + GDI)/2 ≈ 3.4% -> a more reasonable figure to assess Q3.
- Household consumption +3.0%, while income is only +0.94% -> unsustainable.

Q3 GDP data is quite good, especially in consumption. However, corporate investment expansion has not yet been seen -> confidence in the economy has not yet returned. This is a good stepping stone for next year when interest rates may decrease further.