Congressional stock trading bans are becoming increasingly likely—estimates suggest a 23% probability that such restrictions will be implemented in 2026. The interesting question isn't whether this happens, but how market participants adapt. If equity trading gets restricted for lawmakers, prediction markets emerge as the natural alternative. These decentralized platforms allow participation in outcome speculation without the traditional regulatory guardrails that apply to securities markets. It's a classic case of regulatory arbitrage: when one avenue closes, capital flows toward less regulated channels. Whether this signals growing acceptance of prediction markets or highlights the cat-and-mouse game between regulation and financial innovation remains to be seen.