Yesterday, the US economic data was released intensively, and market sentiment was once again pulled in different directions. Let's review the logic behind these data points.

On the employment front, initial jobless claims last week came in at 224,000, slightly below the expected 225,000, and the previous figure was revised up from 223,000 to 237,000. It appears that the labor market remains resilient, with no significant downturn.

But the more critical signals come from inflation. The November core CPI (seasonally adjusted) annual rate dropped to 2.6%, well below the 3% expectation. At the same time, the overall CPI annual rate was 2.7%, also lower than the 3.1% forecast. This is a clear sign of cooling inflation. However, because the October government shutdown data was canceled, the month-over-month inflation rate for this month was not published, which is somewhat disappointing.

What’s truly interesting is the market’s reaction to these developments. Over the past two months, CPI has increased by 0.204%, and core CPI by 0.159%—this pace of growth is indeed slowing down. Rate futures traders are starting to bet that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by around 62 basis points next year. Although the probability of a rate cut in January is only 26.6%, the market is already paving the way for more easing expectations. Some institutions are even engaging in interest rate swaps, predicting that policy will continue to loosen by another 3 basis points by the end of 2026.

For crypto investors, what does this macro backdrop mean? Expectations of liquidity shifts often precede actual policy changes, and this is precisely where market opportunities arise. Of course, economic data interpretation is never linear—sometimes good news can be misunderstood or even countered by the market. What do you think about this round of policy pacing? Will the expectation of rate cuts next year push risk assets higher?