Yesterday, the US economic data was released intensively, and market sentiment was once again pulled in different directions. Let's review the logic behind these data points.



On the employment front, initial jobless claims last week came in at 224,000, slightly below the expected 225,000, and the previous figure was revised up from 223,000 to 237,000. It appears that the labor market remains resilient, with no significant downturn.

But the more critical signals come from inflation. The November core CPI (seasonally adjusted) annual rate dropped to 2.6%, well below the 3% expectation. At the same time, the overall CPI annual rate was 2.7%, also lower than the 3.1% forecast. This is a clear sign of cooling inflation. However, because the October government shutdown data was canceled, the month-over-month inflation rate for this month was not published, which is somewhat disappointing.

What’s truly interesting is the market’s reaction to these developments. Over the past two months, CPI has increased by 0.204%, and core CPI by 0.159%—this pace of growth is indeed slowing down. Rate futures traders are starting to bet that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by around 62 basis points next year. Although the probability of a rate cut in January is only 26.6%, the market is already paving the way for more easing expectations. Some institutions are even engaging in interest rate swaps, predicting that policy will continue to loosen by another 3 basis points by the end of 2026.

For crypto investors, what does this macro backdrop mean? Expectations of liquidity shifts often precede actual policy changes, and this is precisely where market opportunities arise. Of course, economic data interpretation is never linear—sometimes good news can be misunderstood or even countered by the market. What do you think about this round of policy pacing? Will the expectation of rate cuts next year push risk assets higher?
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RektRecordervip
· 2025-12-21 07:33
Another wave of data bombardment is here, and my wallet is starting to tremble again. The interest rate cut cycle has come, but can we really go all in? History tells us that the probability of favourable information leading to reverse dumping is equally high. It's true that the core CPI has fallen to 2.6%, but the lack of month-on-month data somewhat affects the judgment. If there really is a cut of 62 basis points next year, can risk assets double? I think it's unlikely, and it still depends on how employment turns out. Money is still in the hands of institutions, and retail investors can only follow the trend and gamble.
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EyeOfTheTokenStormvip
· 2025-12-19 05:47
Inflation data is so strong, but I feel like this rebound is a bit fake... Looking at historical data, expectations of rate cuts are usually the last frenzy, and the true bottom formation can only be confirmed 3-6 months after policy shifts. --- 62 basis points? Uh... The data model tells me that the market is currently betting on the Fed's "soft landing," but this probability itself is worth questioning. Risk warning: Don't be blinded by short-term positive news. --- Another round of "easing expectations" is about to trap people? My quantitative analysis shows that the crypto liquidity turning point usually lags macro policy changes by about 8 weeks, so everyone, don't rush to get in. --- CPI is indeed decreasing, but will those risk assets you are optimistic about really rise? From the experience in 2017, policy shifts themselves are actually signals of the phase top... --- Market cycles are so strange — good news can also cause sell-offs, bad news can also lead to rebounds. I only trust the relationship between volume and price and bottoming patterns; everything else is just stories. --- Wait, after this wave of data releases, are you all doing T? Honestly, in such a volatile market, I'm just afraid of chasing highs...
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LayerHoppervip
· 2025-12-18 19:48
Inflation has cooled down so rapidly that the market has already started yolo rate cuts. Let's wait and see how the Federal Reserve reacts.
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MemeCoinSavantvip
· 2025-12-18 19:43
ngl the inflation print hitting 2.6% is giving major liquidity boon vibes... statistically speaking we're witnessing peak copium destruction rn
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degenonymousvip
· 2025-12-18 19:35
The cooling of inflation has been anticipated for a while. The main issue is that the market is now too greedy, only focusing on interest rate cut expectations, without properly assessing the data quality. Will cryptocurrencies explode if interest rate cuts actually happen? Not necessarily. What we are more afraid of is the moment when expectations fall short.
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DataOnlookervip
· 2025-12-18 19:35
Core CPI drops to 2.6%, this is the real good news. The expectation of interest rate cuts is likely to be confirmed.
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