#美联储降息 Eight Years of Trading Reflection: Why I Say This Profit System Should Be Archived

Since entering the market in 2017, my account has gradually grown from an initial 10,000 yuan. The core of achieving financial freedom has never been about betting on luck, but following a trading framework that many traders describe as "seemingly simple, but actually strict." Recently, after deciding to step back from the market, I want to review this method comprehensively.

**Three Lines Govern the Entire Trading Logic**

Opening the candlestick chart, my view is limited to three lines: the 50-day moving average to judge short-term trend direction, the 200-day moving average as the dividing line between bull and bear markets, and volume, which reveals the true intentions of capital. The 2017 Bitcoin surge past $5,000 coincided exactly with the first time the 50-day line crossed the 200-day line. At the same time, volume expanded to three times the six-month average—this was a sufficiently strong signal. At that moment, I invested all available funds, and that operation caused the account to break through the 10 million yuan mark for the first time. This was not luck; it was something that could be traced.

**Three Unbreakable Iron Laws**

If the three lines are the system’s brain, then these three iron laws are the protective mechanisms.

First: The position in a single coin is limited to 15%. During Litecoin’s explosive growth in 2018, I only allocated 12% of my capital according to the rules. When it later fell 80%, the account’s fluctuations remained fully controllable, without breaching the safety boundary of the principal. The core logic of diversified allocation is to equip assets with a shock absorption system—no matter how extreme the market, the core assets will not be broken through.

Second: The stop-loss line is the last line of defense and the strictest rule. When mainstream coins break below the 50-day line by more than 8%, I must stop loss; for smaller coins, the stop-loss is a rigid 5%. On the night of the LUNA project collapse in 2022, my system automatically triggered the stop-loss mechanism. Although that position was only 1%, mechanical execution kept the final loss within about 70,000 USD. Traders who entered with me faced psychological battles and ultimately took on debts of tens of millions. The same black swan, different outcomes—what made the difference was whether there was a strict stop-loss discipline.

Third: Limit the number of trades to no more than 3 per month. In earlier years, I made the mistake of chasing every fluctuation, and frequent trading gradually eroded the gains of a property. Later, I imposed this constraint—no matter what, I could not exceed 3 trades. This constraint actually helped me seize major opportunities, such as the extreme correction on March 12, 2020, and the key technical reversal in April 2021.

**The Last Trade**

Last week, Ethereum’s 50-day line attempted to break through the 200-day line for the third time but ultimately did not fall below that level. Volume shrank to recent lows—this is the most standard "buy signal" in the system. I entered with an 8% position, and three days later, the price rose 15%. I took profits according to the rules and exited. This trade pushed the account beyond the previous target line.

Looking back at an old trading log from 2016, the first page reads: "Make 20 million and then retire." Interestingly, the final summary in the log is just one sentence: "Complex systems eat emotions in the market; simple systems eat time’s money."

The simpler the rules, the stronger the execution. The next market cycle is already brewing. Instead of blindly exploring, it’s better to find your own system.