#美国证券交易委员会推进数字资产监管框架创新 Mid-December Market Review: Starting to Make Money from Market Analysis $ETH

With trading volume so sluggish, even 🐶 has to shake his head. Frankly speaking, how can such a situation produce a market trend? First, let's organize the current key variables:

The real probability of a rate cut in January is now only 24.4%, which is quite below market expectations. The Yen rate hike, although seemingly a matter for Japan, directly increases hedging costs, shrinking the arbitrage space for global funds. When the non-farm payroll and CPI data are released next week, they will determine whether the central bank accelerates or pauses its rate cut cycle.

More importantly, the inflow of funds into mainstream ETFs—still net inflows during the rate cut expectations period—has begun to slow down or even exit once the rate cut cycle is confirmed. Without genuine market liquidity support, the short-term strategy should remain predominantly high-altitude short positions; otherwise, what can push prices higher? Only a breakthrough in trading volume can break the deadlock, but currently, the market's contrast is clearly insufficient.

$ETH in the short term, if it cannot hold above the key level of 3150, will likely fall below 3000. Before important data is released, managing positions well is the top priority, with a light position approach mainly. The upside space isn't large, and there’s currently no reason to expect a rebound.

For altcoins, keep an eye on $ZEC, with a high-altitude approach, targeting 350. If it breaks below 305, it might head straight to 237.