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Grayscale: The Bitcoin market structure no longer follows the "four-year cycle"; institutional capital inflows and macro environment are reshaping BTC price trends
Grayscale states that the Bitcoin pricing model driven by halving—a pattern that shaped Bitcoin's early history—is losing its influence. As more Bitcoin enters circulation, the relative impact of each halving is diminishing, and the Bitcoin market structure no longer follows the "four-year cycle."
Grayscale points out that the current Bitcoin market is more dominated by institutional capital, rather than the retail speculation that dominated previous cycles. Unlike the explosive surges seen in 2013 and 2017, Bitcoin's recent rally has been more controlled. Grayscale believes that the subsequent 30% correction also resembles a typical bull market correction.
Interest rate expectations, progress in crypto regulation driven by both US political parties, and the trend of Bitcoin being integrated into institutional investment portfolios are increasingly shaping market trends.