Watching the gold price skyrocket over the past couple of days has left me with mixed feelings. The seasoned traders in the group are frantically showing off their profit screenshots, while the newbies who missed out are stomping their feet in frustration—“If I chase now, is there still any meat left on the bone?” I’ve seen this question at least 800 times every day.

After so many years in the market, the more dramatic the surge, the more cautious I become. I stayed up all night poring over half a century of historical data and finally understood one iron rule: Every time gold takes off, the underlying logic always comes down to one word—“crisis.” Bull markets are never a windfall from the heavens; they’re always pushed up by panic.

Let me clarify a fact for those still lost in the fog.

The rally from 1971 to 1980 was textbook material, with gold prices soaring 20x. Most people just drool over the gains, but overlook the fact that in 1974, the global financial system nearly collapsed—Western economies were a total mess, currency markets were in chaos, and everyone was scrambling to hoard gold for safety, so the price naturally went to the moon.

Look at the bull run that started in 2001: for the first seven years it climbed slowly with little attention, until the 2008 subprime crisis suddenly exploded, nearly bringing the global financial system to a halt. Gold instantly went into berserk mode, surging over 40% in a single year, cementing its label as the “king of safe havens.”

Some people are probably wondering: Where’s the crisis now? Why is gold still surging?

Here’s the key—the market never waits for a crisis to actually erupt before reacting. Smart money always positions itself in advance. The biggest risk right now is the movement of the US dollar.

The recent trajectory of the US dollar index reminds me of the vibe right before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971. That might sound alarmist, but the data speaks for itself.