#加密货币市场动态 CME’s latest data shows the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December has climbed to 71%. Behind this number could lie the next major shift in the crypto market.

What does a rate cut mean for cryptocurrencies? The core logic is actually quite straightforward—when the cost of borrowing US dollars drops, the appeal of traditionally low-yield assets diminishes. Capital chasing higher returns will naturally reassess the value of allocating to risk assets. As a high-volatility asset class, cryptocurrencies often come into focus for institutions and investors at these times.

Looking back at history: during the last rate hike cycle, large amounts of capital flowed back into US dollar assets, putting clear pressure on the crypto market. Now, as expectations of a rate cut become clearer, market sentiment is quietly shifting. The recent price recovery in Bitcoin and Ethereum is, to some extent, a signal of capital positioning early—in the crypto space, it’s always “buy the rumor, sell the news.”

A 71% probability means there’s already a considerable market consensus. When both mainstream institutions and retail investors tend to believe a rate cut will happen, capital flows often react in advance.

In the short term, major coins may continue to recover on the back of these expectations. If we actually enter an easing cycle? The scenario could be even more exciting: fresh capital pouring in, and altcoins could also see a rotation rally.

But it’s wise to be cautious—a pullback risk remains once the rate cut happens and the “good news is priced in.” Given the current probability and market sentiment, however, this is indeed a bullish window worth watching.

What do you think—if the rate cut really happens, how high could Bitcoin go? Leave a comment and share your prediction.