The situation surrounding the Fed’s December interest rate cut vote is more deadlocked than expected.

Institutional analyst Neil Irwin revealed a key piece of information: currently, there are exactly 6 votes in favor of a rate cut—Powell, Jefferson, Williams, plus three board members appointed by Trump. But here’s the problem: with 12 voting seats, it takes 7 votes for a majority, so they’re just one vote short.

The opposition camp is also strong. Four reserve bank presidents outside the New York district are undecided about the rate cut, and Board member Barr, appointed by Biden, is likely to vote against it due to concerns about an inflation rebound. That means all eyes are now on Board member Cook—she’s always paid special attention to the labor market, but has kept her stance on monetary policy very tight, rarely making it public.

Adding to the drama, on January 21 next year, the Supreme Court will hear a case about whether Trump can fire Cook. Since last fall, Trump has been trying to remove her. Under this kind of political pressure, the weight of Cook’s key vote is probably heavier than ever.

Whether the rate cut expectations will come true may ultimately depend on how this “silent board member” decides to vote.