What exactly is the Fed playing at this time? The market has been left completely disoriented by this combo of moves.

Regulatory Chair Barr suddenly came out to pour cold water on things, saying that inflation is still hovering around 3%, far from the 2% target. The implication was clear—don’t count on a rate cut in December. As soon as he finished speaking, the US stock market surged 2% at the open, but by the close, it had plunged 2%. The bulls probably didn’t even have time to react to what had happened.

The crypto market was even more chaotic. Bitcoin crashed from $90,000 straight down to the $80,000 range, and Ethereum evaporated 10% in a single day. The wails of liquidations could be heard across the entire network. Retail investors who bet on a rate cut were left dumbfounded, as the probability of a cut was slashed from 80% to 40%, and real money just went up in smoke.

Even more interesting is that internal strife has broken out within the Fed itself. Hawkish heavyweight Harker publicly stated: cutting rates now would only add fuel to the inflation fire. Schmid cast a dissenting vote as early as October, and the dovish voices have been completely suppressed. Even the so-called “new Fed news agency” in the media has come out to twist the knife, saying September’s non-farm payrolls data is a mess, and there’s been no internal consensus for a while.

The data is certainly split—September’s new jobs beat expectations and looked decent, but the unemployment rate soared to a four-year high. Barr also added that the market hasn’t fully cooled down yet, and it’s too early to use rate cuts as a firefighting tool.

All in all, the logic behind these moves might be far more complicated than it appears on the surface.

BTC-2.86%

ETH-4.08%

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DefiPlaybook

· 12h ago

The Fed's recent actions are indeed a bit harsh, but on the other hand, the crypto world has long been played out by this momentum investing trap for suckers. Wait a minute, the probability of a rate cut has dropped from 80% to 40%? It feels like some large investors already knew the inside story, and we might be played for suckers again. Real money down the drain... doesn't this remind you of a previous liquidity mining project? Fortunately, I didn't go all in at that time. Bal's operation is somewhat similar to the rug pull logic of certain protocols, first teasing and then turning against. From on-chain data, whales must have dumped when it hit 90,000; we retail investors are always the last to know. Alright, here we go again, another perfect case of "high yield, low risk" being slapped in the face by reality. The level of internal tearing within the Fed feels no less chaotic than some DAO governance. Actually, this is just an arbitrage opportunity; wait until market sentiment is completely cold before entering a position, it's still too early now. This kind of policy reversal trap should have been spotted long ago; it's my greed that got me. That's how it is in the crypto world; once the policy changes, all technical analysis becomes worthless, those who should enter DeFi should enter DeFi.

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PumpDoctrine

· 12h ago

Damn, I've been played for suckers again, 80% directly cut down to 40%, these people really know how to put on a show.

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fren.eth

· 12h ago

Here we go again? This group of people at the Fed is really playing with fire, and retail investors are being harvested mercilessly. --- BTC fell from 90,000 to 80,000, and my stop loss order was not even triggered before I got liquidated... --- The probability of a rate cut is 80%, and it directly slumped to 40%. It's hilarious; this is the "surprise" from the Fed. --- With internal conflicts this intense, they still dare to come out and act united, really taking us for fools. --- Enough is enough; with inflation at 3%, they are still shouting for more rate hikes. This logic is unbelievable. --- Ether evaporated by 10%, and my leveraged position went straight to heaven. --- The hawks just want to see retail investors cut losses, there’s no other reason. --- The logic behind this operation can be summed up in two words—Be Played for Suckers. --- The Fed says there is no consensus, but it is actually paving the way for future actions. --- With the market plunging so harshly, it shows that institutions already knew, while we are still catching a falling knife.

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FloorPriceWatcher

· 12h ago

The Fed's trap really messed up retail investors; if I had known, I wouldn't have bothered.

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AirdropHunterKing

· 12h ago

Oh my, this is such a trap. There's an 80% chance it gets slashed straight down to 40%. Tell me, who could have seen this coming?

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