Recently, there has been a fierce internal conflict within the Fed. On one side are hawkish officials like Barl and Harmack, who are adamant about the inflation data and clearly intend to maintain high interest rates; on the other side, White House advisor Hassett has come out advocating for interest rate cuts, leaving the market in confusion.

**The bearish logic is quite strong**
J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley have directly canceled their rate cut forecasts for December. Their reasoning is simple: inflation hasn't been suppressed yet, and the Fed doesn't dare to act recklessly. In a high-interest environment, the cost of capital is expensive, liquidity is tight, and risk assets are the first to suffer. Assets like BTC, which are sensitive to liquidity, may still have to grind in a volatile range. As for altcoins, it's even more evident that without new capital entering the market, sideways decline is the norm.

**But don't be too pessimistic**
Goldman Sachs and Vanguard haven't ruled it out, leaving a possibility open - there might still be 1 to 2 rate cuts by the end of the year. Hassett's statement is also not without basis. If inflation data really goes down, the Fed's shift may happen faster than expected. Once the rate cut expectations materialize, the crypto market is usually the first to react. Historical experience shows that during liquidity cycles, the performance of BTC and ETH has never disappointed.

**How to do it in practice?**
Don't rush to go all in now. Here are a few ideas for reference:

First, pay close attention to the CPI data release points. Appropriately reduce your holdings before the data comes out; do not bear the risk and confront it head-on.

Second, during a major decline, accumulate mainstream coins in batches, prioritizing BTC and ETH, and don't shoot all your bullets at once.

Third, keep at least 30% cash on hand. Wait until the Fed's signal for a real interest rate cut is clear before increasing your position.

The market is now betting on the time lag of the policy shift, so don't rush into it.