Tonight's non-farm payroll release can be called the suspense thriller of the year. The US added 119,000 jobs in September, far exceeding market expectations of 50,000 and the previous 22,000. This should be a strong signal for the economy. But the plot took a sudden turn—unemployment surprisingly surged to 4.4%, hitting a peak not seen since 2021. This combination of data looks like a magic trick of drawing a circle with the left hand and a square with the right.

The market instantly split into two factions: hawks focused on employment data believe the economy is very resilient, no rate cuts in sight; doves watching the unemployment rate grew anxious—if the Fed doesn’t loosen policy, the economy might hard land. The Federal Reserve is caught in the middle, probably questioning life—who to believe?

The bigger headache comes next. The US government could shut down at any time, and subsequent economic data will likely stop coming. This non-farm report might become the only « navigation tool » in the coming weeks. Traders have already started blindly guessing the December rate decision, with bond and forex markets jumping around repeatedly, and the crypto market naturally cannot escape this chaos.

Honestly, at such times, talking about good or bad news is too absolute. This is purely a moment of « uncertainty premium »—volatility will amplify, opportunities and risks are both present. The recent movements of BTC prove this best; intraday fluctuations can make you doubt life.

To be honest: now is not the time to go all-in. Control your positions, set stop-losses, and don’t let emotions drive you. Live until the data becomes clear, and you’ll have already won half the battle. The market will give the answer, but it won’t spoil the ending in advance.