The data on November 21 is quite interesting.

First, the conclusion: The probability of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in December has now soared to 60.4%, which has caught the market off guard.

The non-farm data released by the Labor Department for September is quite contradictory—there were 119,000 new jobs added, more than double the expected 50,000, which suggests that the job market is holding up well. But the unemployment rate? It surged directly to 4.4%, a height not seen since 2021.

How to understand this set of data? Employment is increasing, but the unemployment rate is rising, which indicates that the labor market is "cooling down in a controlled manner." It's that kind of neither cold nor hot.

The CME FedWatch's betting is more straightforward: the likelihood of maintaining the current interest rate in December is 60.4%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 39.6%. Those at Bank of America even believe that Powell may not cut rates at all before he steps down in May 2026, with rates just fluctuating in the range of 3.75%-4.0%.

How did the market react? It would not be an exaggeration to describe it with the word 'collapse'.
The Dow Jones fell by 386 points, a decline of 0.84%; the Nasdaq fared worse, plummeting by 486 points, a decline of 2.15%; the S&P 500 also couldn't withstand it, falling by 103 points, a decline of 1.56%.

Once the expectation of a prolonged high interest rate environment is confirmed, the days for risk assets will not be easy. This applies to the stock market as well, and the liquidity pressure in the crypto market will only increase.