#加密市场回调 fell below 86000, $BTC retraced to 2800 —— Behind this big dump, the Fed's stance has changed.

Will interest rates be cut in December? It seems uncertain now. The Philadelphia Fed's Paulson directly stated, "Interest rate cuts are already on the edge of danger," and if they go any lower, it won't stabilize the economy, but will directly stimulate overheating. Her biggest concern now is the employment data, but the problem is - the data isn't clear enough, and no one dares to act rashly.

The Goolsbee from Chicago is even tougher, directly stating that he is extremely uneasy about "continuous rate cuts" and that he would hit the brakes even if it meant voting against it. His support for rate cuts in September and October was simple: to protect jobs. But now inflation is rising again, service sector prices are still increasing, and the government shutdown has led to data gaps—this rate cannot be cut at all.

The more troublesome issue is financial stability. Fed Governor Cook warned that asset prices are already at historic highs and a big dump "could happen at any time"; Cleveland Fed President Mester was more direct: the financial environment is too loose, and further cuts would be laying a landmine.

Then the September employment data came out late, and it slapped everyone in the face hard—adding 119,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 50,000. Although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the resilience of the labor market is clearly stronger than expected. After seeing the data, Morgan Stanley directly changed its stance: giving up on the expectation of a rate cut in December and needing to reassess next year.

The current situation is: the doves are afraid of a collapse in employment, the hawks are worried about inflation and bubbles, and the data is incomplete, so no one dares to make guarantees. If there is truly a pause in December, this year's rate-cutting cycle will basically come to an end, and the pace will be much slower next year.

For the crypto market? With liquidity expectations tightening, volatility is definitely not going to be small. $ETH These altcoins need to be more cautious, and friends with high leverage are advised to reduce their positions first.