Yesterday's market fall was frankly quite frightening. Bitcoin directly broke through 90,000, and Ethereum couldn't hold the 3,000 mark, with the total liquidation amount skyrocketing to 650 million dollars. The friends circle was filled with wails, but when we calm down and look at the data, this big dump actually has traces to follow.

First, let's talk about the superficial reasons. Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have seen net outflows for five consecutive weeks, totaling $2.6 billion — institutional funds are pulling out, which is obvious. Furthermore, after the psychological barrier of $100,000 was breached, the leveraged positions of 170,000 people were instantly liquidated, and once the stampede effect occurs, no one can stop it. On a macro level, things are even worse, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have fallen through, and Trump is again implementing tariff policies, leading funds to rush towards safe-haven assets.

But here's the interesting part. On-chain data shows that there are whales crazily accumulating around $92,000; the selling volume from long-term holding addresses has dropped by 32% compared to last month; the fear and greed index has already fallen to single digits - historical experience tells us that this kind of extreme fear often means that a reversal is brewing.

The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in December could be a turning point. Arthur Hayes mentioned recently that if quantitative easing is restarted, it is not impossible for Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of the year. Of course, such predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, but the shift in liquidity is indeed the core variable.

Recently, the sudden shutdown of DappRadar is also worth pondering - projects that seemed glamorous during a bull market still have to die when a bear market comes. The market is always educating people: blindly chasing highs when prices rise can lead to losses, and panicking to cut losses when prices fall can also result in missing opportunities. In the past few cycles, those who dared to make moves during extreme fear have averaged a 10%-30% rebound within six months.

What are you planning to choose at this position?