A few noteworthy things from last night to this morning.

First, let’s talk about the Federal Reserve—CME data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped to around 30-40%. After the September non-farm payroll data was released, it became even more awkward, with an increase of 119,000 jobs, which was much higher than expected, dousing the expectations for a rate cut. Interestingly, however, on-chain traders are increasing their bets on a rate cut in December, but most still believe the Federal Reserve might skip this one.

The capital movements are quite frequent. SoftBank is preparing to inject $3 billion into OpenAI-related data centers, which is no small amount. The crypto prediction platform Polymarket is reportedly in talks for a new round of financing, with a valuation directly heading towards $12 billion – although the news hasn't been fully confirmed yet, this scale already indicates many issues.

There are also movements at the policy level. U.S. Senator Warren Davidson has introduced the "Bitcoin for America Act," aiming to incorporate Bitcoin into the national financial instrument system. Specific details have not been fully disclosed yet, but the proposal itself is already quite sensational.

Overall, the current situation is a bit divided: on a macro level, the expectations for interest rate cuts are cooling, and liquidity may tighten; however, the financing scale of institutions and platforms remains large. The cryptocurrency market is adjusting along two lines simultaneously—one focusing on policy expectations and the other following capital allocations. How this evolves next still needs to be observed.