Bitcoin depth correction causes market divergence, key technical levels become the focus of long and short contention.

As the price of Bitcoin recently fell back to the $90,000 range, it has sparked intense discussions in the market about whether it has truly entered a bear market.

From a technical analysis perspective, macro swing trader @matthughes13 pointed out that the current trend of Bitcoin is quite similar to the consolidation pattern of 2024.

He pointed out through Fibonacci retracement analysis that the 0.618 retracement level near $96,788 is a key level. If the monthly line for November can close within this range, it may replicate last year's trend and set a new high again.

Market analyst @rektcapital, however, has presented a more cautious viewpoint from the perspective of the weekly chart. He believes that the 50-week exponential moving average is the core "bull market structure" of this cycle, and the current weekly chart has significantly fallen below this average.

Therefore, he warned that the closing performance in the coming weeks is crucial. If it cannot regain a position above the 50-week moving average, it will signify a shift in the macro trend.

However, analyst @FrankAFetter pointed out that the recent price decline of Bitcoin has pushed it into a lower negative standard deviation range, based on the on-chain MVRV indicator data for short-term holders. This level has historically often indicated the arrival of a significant rebound.

He also added that opportunities to break below the standard deviation are rare, but they often represent excellent investment opportunities.

However, Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, analyzes from the perspective of market participants, believing that this decline is more like an internal rotation of assets among long-term holders rather than a large-scale sell-off.

He pointed out that Bitcoin OG holders are transferring Bitcoin to traders, while new channels like ETFs and MSTR continue to inject liquidity. The cycle theory will only be considered truly invalid when these liquidity channels cease to operate.

Overall, the technical indicators do show signs of fatigue, and the 50-week moving average along with the $96,000-$97,000 range may become key resistance levels.

If Bitcoin can regain these key positions, the current decline can still be seen as a Depth consolidation; on the contrary, if it continues to fall below, it will reinforce the bearish sentiment.

In summary, it is believed that the final direction of the market will depend on the weekly closing performance in the coming weeks, rather than short-term intraday fluctuations.

#BTC # Technical Analysis