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The "U.S. government restart" key vote failed to pass last night, and the market bets that the government restart will be delayed until after the 16th.
On November 8, last night, the “U.S. government restart” key vote: the motion S.3012, the “Federal Employee Funding Exemption Act”, was not passed. As a result of this news, the probability on Polymarket for “government restart being delayed until after the 16th” rose to 53%, while the probability for “government restart occurring between the 8th and 11th” fell to 12%.