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Will Bitcoin reach its peak in Q4 2025? An analyst says no.

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Analyst PlanC has just dropped a bombshell: expecting Bitcoin to hit a peak in the fourth quarter of this year is statistically unlikely. His argument is brutally simple: it’s like betting that a coin lands tails four times in a row after having already landed tails three times. Pure statistical illusion.

PlanC emphasizes that the era of halving cycles is over. With the massive influx of institutional capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and the rise of investment firms in Bitcoin, these cycles have lost relevance. The reality: there is no fundamental reason—only psychology and self-fulfilling illusions—to believe that 2025 will end with a Bitcoin peak.

In other words: if you think it will go up because “that's how it was in past cycles”, you are playing with fire. The market has evolved, but our expectations have not yet.

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