Bitcoin at the Crossroads: Confirmed Bottom or Bull Trap?

The recent movement of BTC has generated two completely different interpretations in the market. The rally of the past few days developed in just three waves — not the five-wave structure that Elliott Wave analysts expect to confirm a solid bullish impulse — and this changes everything.

The Dangerous Scenario: Corrective Wave B

Some traders see the recent rise as a Wave B correction, which would mean a destructive Wave C downside is coming. In this case, BTC could drop again to the $103,000–$100,600 range, trapping those who bought at the top and clearing weak positions.

The lesson: if you believe in this scenario, don’t go long until you see confirmation. The risk of another sharp correction remains high.

My Main View: The Bottom Is Already In

But here’s the interesting part: the sharp decline we just saw probably was the market’s last shakeout, not the start of a new downtrend. If this reading is correct, we are forming a Wave 1–2 second wave structure, which in Elliott Wave terms means the bottom has been confirmed and Bitcoin is ready for its next bullish move.

This setup would be extremely bullish: it would imply a strong continuation and aligns perfectly with Bitcoin’s macro trend.

Key Numbers

Critical Support: $109,971

• If broken, forget the bullish thesis. It would signal a deeper correction.

Bullish Targets:

• Short-term: $115K
• Medium-term: $120K–$125K in the coming weeks

Bearish Targets (Plan B):

• $103K–$100.6K (where demand would reappear)

Trader Play

✅ Longs: Acceptable in the current zone if you follow the Wave 1–2 thesis. Risk/reward remains attractive, but tight risk management is mandatory.

❌ Cut losses: The risk here isn’t worth it. A break below $109,971 invalidates the bullish thesis.

Final Balance

Although the incomplete three-wave structure creates uncertainty, the odds favor the bulls. We are either in the final stages of a correction (and the bottom has already passed), or the bottom has just formed and Bitcoin is about to take off.

In either case: shorting here is a losing play. Well-placed long positions with stops offer real potential.