Finally, I have time to sit down and chat with everyone about the rumors and alarm of the past two days (Part Two)

Let's continue with the previous update. The reason I haven't been paying much attention to the market is that I've been busy with company matters. The data that came out in October was much worse than expected. Now, the difficulties in running a restaurant business feel much harder than playing in the crypto space. The anxiety that business brings me is much greater than that from the crypto world.

In fact, in our circle, short-term fluctuations and long-term consolidation are the norms. The key is to坚持长期的价值投资. As long as the underlying logic of selecting coins is not significantly deviated, the annualized returns can be expected.

But BTC must be the main focus, while altcoins will always be a matter of personal risk preference.

Sitting in front of the computer at night writing updates, I saw a few Xs posted by Boss Zhao. It seems he is going to encourage everyone not to lose heart again. Zhao the Scythe's self-monologue about being trapped every time he buys coins indirectly proves that even the big shots in the crypto world find it difficult to accurately grasp market rhythms. He has bought BTC and called on everyone to stock up on a certain B, and in just a few years, those coins have indeed dropped, but the returns are also quite visible. You may not like this person, but you must understand that it seems he really hasn't acted like a scythe when it comes to recommending coins. Now he has started endorsing Aster again; do you dare to get in?

I don't dare to do it at the moment, but I will take some time to research. If funds allow, buying a little to hold onto wouldn't hurt. I once mentioned during a live stream that for altcoins I don't have enough understanding of, even if I want to speculate, I wouldn't invest more than 50,000 yuan of principal into them.

The first is that I find it very hard to believe the myth that altcoins can make you rich. The second is that according to probability theory, if you invest in 3-4 altcoins and set your stop loss at a 50% limit, as long as one of them can double in value, you can make a small profit of 12.5%. If one can increase by 6 times, your principal can more than double. If one can increase by 10 times, your principal can more than triple.

This method may seem foolish, but it can relatively reliably give you the thrill of making money. Similarly, you can reduce this capital to 5000 and distribute it in meme coins or primary market low-cap coins.

Is the profit probability of this type of spot altcoin gameplay really relatively easy to occur?

It is feasible to invest a small portion in mainstream altcoins during a bear market, and a small portion in trending meme coins during a bull market. However, discussing these now is not very meaningful. As a friend mentioned in the comments earlier, wanting to buy GT, OK某B, B某B for holding now seems to be a timing issue. Generally speaking, coins that have already been pumped are unlikely to be easily pumped again, unless you can wait for a while and truly do not lack funds.

Moreover, the method I mentioned is also anti-human; there aren't many who can truly use it. Most people enter the cryptocurrency space with the aim of getting rich quickly. If you tell newcomers about 5x or 10x returns, many will probably look down on it. So many spot trading experts, as they continue to trade, gradually get involved with contracts. Even though they claim to have their own trading systems, in the end, they all succumb to unpredictable black swan events and that bit of common human greed.

Most of our current pain comes from the fact that the returns from altcoins have not met expectations, and according to traditional bull and bear cycle theory, the deadline for escaping the peak has arrived. It has been previously predicted that as soon as there is any sign of wind or movement in the market, retail investors are extremely likely to panic and continuously hand over their chips, which is the resonance brought about by this four-year peak consensus.

Looking back now, the intentions of the main players should have been achieved, and the fear index has reached 21. Over the year, the days of extreme panic have added up to less than 15 days.

Analyzing the chips handed over by retail investors, on one hand, they come from long-term holders who do not want to incur losses at this peak. On the other hand, there are retail investors who only entered the market after chasing the rise in the second half of the year. From on-chain data, these two groups account for about 40%. I have been wondering, who exactly is buying these chips? The likely candidates should only be seasoned investors and some institutions.

Many people leave comments asking me if the altcoins they hold still have hope. I don't know how to respond to such questions. Even ETH has dropped to such a level; I'm scared of this round of altcoin market. If I hadn't cut losses quickly, I would probably be feeling miserable right now.

In my personal analysis system, there is a relatively simple way to distinguish, which is to observe and compare the price of the cryptocurrency you hold on November 5th of last year.

If the current price can still maintain above last year's price for altcoins, they are basically funds with a nature of faith. These coins either have certain value in their ecosystem or have a certain consensus in the community, such as mainstream altcoins like ETH/ADA/DOGE/LINK/AVAX, etc. Although the current candlestick structure is not very optimistic, considering the policies, there may still be some hope in the days to come. However, this is like finding copper coins among junk, which carries a relatively high level of risk.

Therefore, I have always emphasized that holding positions is not about blindly being bullish or using psychological tricks to win over oneself every day, but rather about evaluating the chips you hold. Regardless of the fundamentals, news, or technical analysis, we must consider whether there is still a possibility of a price surge.

If you have rationally considered it, then hold on to it. If you firmly believe it has value and you have some bullets, you can also add to your position.

As for those below this price, such as the once popular altcoins APE/FIL/DOT/SHIB/ORDI/WLD, is there still hope? I believe if you look at the candlestick chart and combine it with the daily trading volume data, you should come to your own conclusion. This, I will leave for you to judge yourself.

From this perspective, the explosive bull market for altcoins that we have been hoping for has never actually arrived. In fact, many cryptocurrencies have continued to bear market trends, occasionally engaging in quick pump-and-dump schemes to trick some people into joining. This phenomenon is not something new we have only started seeing today. Therefore, discussing whether it's a bull or bear market has little significance for many people.

After nearly two years of ups and downs with altcoins, I believe many people are truly numb, and some have even closed their software and left the market. So if you are still in the market at this moment and have the mood to check the dynamics and vent your frustrations, regardless of whether your account is in profit or loss, you have already outperformed 60% of the players. At least you have endured such a long period of tough times, and your resilience and trading skills are still relatively healthy so far.

I always believe that now is not the beginning of a bear market. If you share this view, then prepare yourself for trading and mental readiness. The impact of news on market trends will be significant. As long as your account can maintain a position where you can advance or retreat, it's only a matter of working hard for a year.

This process is definitely painful; we are all ordinary people. Who wouldn't want to make some money for the New Year? Give yourself some confidence; perhaps today's melancholy will make tomorrow's happiness even more precious. #今日你看涨还是看跌？