#Bitcoin Price Analysis

Institutions, Whales, and Margin Traders: The Triple Power Game Behind BTC’s Fluctuations
The Bitcoin market is currently witnessing an intense tug-of-war among institutions, whales, and margin traders, each becoming a key force driving price volatility.
1️⃣ Institutional Support: Buying the Dip
Major institutions, led by firms like Strive, continue to buy against the trend to build strong support. Recently, Strive purchased 72 BTC at an average of $114,304, bringing its total holdings to nearly 5,958 BTC. Similarly, MicroStrategy accumulated 3,081 BTC at an average of $115,829 back in August.
This kind of long-term, conviction-based buying acts as a stabilizing force for the market, suggesting confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
2️⃣ Whale Activity: Selling Pressure Rises
On-chain data reveals that an ancient whale recently transferred 5,000 BTC (worth over $500 million) to an exchange, reportedly swapping it for Ethereum — creating a wave of selling pressure.
At the same time, short-term holders took profits near $116,000, adding another 18,700 BTC of sell-side volume — reinforcing strong resistance at that level.
3️⃣ Margin Market: Long Liquidations Dominate
The derivatives market has become a fierce battleground. Over the past 24 hours, $195 million worth of long positions have been liquidated, representing 83% of total liquidations.
With the long-to-short ratio now sitting at 2.3x, overly crowded long positions could trigger a fresh wave of liquidations if the price dips below key support.
Technical Signals: Bears in Control
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has broken below its previous low, forming a “shooting star” candle — a classic bearish reversal pattern.
The MACD has printed a death cross, while the histogram turned negative, indicating increasing bearish momentum.
Although the MA10 remains slightly above the MA30, price action has slipped under the short-term moving averages, signaling a downward trend.
Support Levels: $112,000 – $110,000 zone
Critical Support: $109,800 – if broken, BTC could slide toward $106,000
Resistance: $116,300 – tested multiple times but remains unbroken
Meanwhile, a clear volume-price divergence suggests that rebounds lack strength, as trading volumes continue to shrink during price recoveries.
Market Sentiment & Outlook
Sentiment is split across the market. Despite a relatively firm price range, most traders remain cautious, expecting further downside risk.
However, long-term metrics still show no confirmed bear market: none of the 30 macro bull-market indicators have flipped bearish — implying the bull cycle isn’t over yet.
For short-term traders, watch $112,000 closely. A failure to hold that level could trigger stop-loss cascades and deeper correction.
For long-term investors, tracking ETF fund inflows and institutional accumulation trends remains key.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. estimates Bitcoin is still undervalued by about 11%, with a fair value near $128,400, suggesting room for recovery once short-term pressures fade.
Although staking products across exchanges may draw some temporary liquidity, the core trend still depends on institutional capital flows and macro sentiment.