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The Most Dangerous Illusion in the Crypto World: "This Time is Different"
When the market echoes calls of "this time is a technological revolution" and "this time is a paradigm shift", it is often the moment to be most alert. I have personally experienced the summer of DeFi, the NFT craze, and the concept of the metaverse, and have found that there is nothing new under the sun.
My cycle identification framework:
1. Emotional cycle: from doubt to frenzy and then to disillusionment, always repeating.
2. Capital cycle: The transmission from institutional funds → smart money → retail investors → takers never changes.
3. Technology Cycle: Each "revolution" tends to find the same position on the technology curve.
#GT
In May, when the whole network was discussing the "new paradigm", I noticed the RSI's three peaks divergence and the data of net outflow from exchanges, and I cleared my positions three days in advance, perfectly avoiding the crash.
#PI #BTC #ETH #GateioInto11