The possibility of Bitcoin breaking through $130,000 this year is 0%... 'Uptober' has turned into 'Floptober'.

Bitcoin의 올해 $130,000에 도달할 확률이 0%로 떨어졌다… 'Uptober'가 'Floptober'가 되다.

According to cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin surpassing $130,000 ( about 130 million won ) this month has fallen to 0%. Conversely, the chance of Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 ( about 100 million won ) is estimated at 3%. This contrasts sharply with the upward trend seen at the beginning of the month, when Bitcoin hit new all-time highs and raised expectations of a bull market.

However, market sentiment changed rapidly as trade tensions escalated between the US and China. When the US announced 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, the crypto market saw $19 billion worth of both long and short positions liquidated, causing massive volatility. This undermined Bitcoin's narrative as a “digital gold” safe-haven asset, and it has since underperformed gold in terms of returns. Bitcoin continues to struggle to recover.

The outlook for Bitcoin's price through the end of 2025 remains largely negative. 54% of Polymarket participants expect Bitcoin will not reach $130,000 by year-end. The chance of exceeding $150,000 (about 150 million won) is estimated at just 14%.