November 2025 Cryptocurrency Market Outlook: Liquidity Inflection Point and New Paradigm of Attention Economy

As October 2025 draws to a close, the encryption market is standing at a critical turning point. The unexpected drop in the U.S. September CPI data below expectations signals a clear cooling of inflation, and market expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve policy continue to heat up. The futures market indicates that the probability of an interest rate cut in October has exceeded 98%, and expectations for another rate cut in December are similarly strong. Meanwhile, Powell's hints about "pausing the balance sheet reduction" could inject much-needed liquidity into the market. Against the backdrop of a change in macro trends and the resonance of technical repairs, can encryption assets initiate a new round of upward cycles in the fourth quarter? The answer may lie in a revolution regarding the "reconstruction of attention value."

Liquidity inflection point: Dual catalysts of interest rate cuts and pause in balance sheet reduction

The policy path of the Federal Reserve has always been a core variable in the encryption market. Although the shoe of a 25 basis point rate cut is about to drop, what is more值得关注的是 the potential signal of "stopping the balance sheet reduction." If the balance sheet reduction is paused, it means that the market will no longer face passive tightening pressure of hundreds of billions of dollars each month, and the state of capital congestion is expected to ease. Historical data shows that when the Federal Reserve started unlimited QE in March 2020, Bitcoin's weekly increase reached 20%, while the current market value of the encryption market has grown nearly tenfold since then, and the multiplier effect of liquidity release may become even more significant.

At the same time, the approval process for cryptocurrency ETFs in multiple countries is accelerating. The regulatory frameworks in Canada, Japan, and other regions are gradually becoming clearer, and the US SEC's review of spot Bitcoin ETFs has also entered a critical stage. These institutional breakthroughs will attract a large amount of traditional capital to enter the market through compliant channels, providing new incremental support for the market.

Technical Repair: Bullish Opportunities After a Consolidation Bottom

From the price trend, after the "Black Saturday" crash on October 11, market sentiment once fell to freezing point. However, technical indicators have shown positive signals: the MACD green bars for Bitcoin at the daily level are narrowing, and the RSI has moved away from the oversold range; Ethereum has formed dense support around $3900, and the number of large on-chain transfers has rebounded to levels seen at the beginning of the bull market. The weekly bull market trend channel remains intact, and the current fluctuations seem more like a prelude to a "bull market skirmish."

It is worth noting that Ethereum's recent "death cross" is not a sign of a bear market victory. According to Coinotag data, the ETH trading reserves have decreased from 27 million coins at the beginning of 2023 to 15.9 million coins by the end of 2025. While short-term selling pressure is diminishing, the institutional holding ratio continues to rise. Historical experience shows that under similar technical patterns (such as Bitcoin's $3,800 phase in 2020), the market often completes the bull-bear transition through "box breakout + liquidity accumulation."

Attention Economy Revolution: Paradigm Innovation of the HOLO Ecosystem

Beyond the traditional financial narrative, a reconstruction of "attention value" is quietly taking place. The HOLO project opens up a new dimension of value growth for the encryption market by constructing a distributed attention network. Its core logic lies in: deeply binding KOL influence, user behavior data, and on-chain rights to form a closed-loop ecosystem of "traffic-data-revenue."

Taking the Loud project as an example, this protocol quantifies the "mind share" through Kaito AI, transforming social media volume into quantifiable on-chain revenue. All transaction fees are distributed weekly to the top 25 efficient disseminators, while the HOLO token serves both as a staking asset (affecting ranking weight) and as a settlement medium (for direct reward exchange). This design breaks the centralized monopoly of the traditional traffic economy, allowing content creators to receive blockchain-based transparent returns for the first time.

The deeper significance is that HOLO is defining a new asset class called "attention fuel." Currently, 12 DeFi and GameFi projects are in contact with Holoworld, attempting to incorporate attention data into liquidity mining models. If this model becomes the industry standard, HOLO's network effects will experience exponential expansion—after all, in the Web3 world, attention is capital, and consensus is productivity.

The game of risks and opportunities coexists.

Despite the optimistic outlook, investors still need to be wary of three major risks: first, if the Federal Reserve delays tapering or the rate cuts are less than expected, it may trigger a short-term correction; second, regulatory policies in multiple countries are not yet fully clarified, and compliance issues remain a sword of Damocles; third, the attention economy model itself carries the risk of "incentive overload," and it is necessary to observe whether projects like Loud can achieve sustainable community growth.

For strategists, the fourth quarter can focus on three directions: 1) the allocation value of liquidity-sensitive assets (such as Bitcoin ETF underlying); 2) the performance breakthroughs of the Ethereum Layer2 ecosystem after the EIP-4844 upgrade; 3) early layout opportunities for attention economy infrastructures like HOLO. Historical experience shows that projects that can build new narratives at the end of a bear market often achieve excess returns when a bull market starts.

In November 2025, the encryption market may witness a dual resonance of liquidity inflection points and technological innovation. When the macro environment relaxes for the market, and the underlying protocols begin to reconstruct the logic of value distribution, true wealth opportunities often lie hidden in those "seemingly marginal" innovative experiments. As HOLO reveals: in the Web3 era, attention is not only the entry point for traffic but also the core production factor for value creation. Whoever can gain an advantage in this round of paradigm shift will hold the key to the next bull market. #CPI数据来袭 #你最看好哪个GateFunMeme？