On the eve of the Fed's decision: BTC holds key position, ETH is poised to launch, altcoins are brewing beneath the surface.

The crypto market is experiencing a brief calm ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) maintaining narrow fluctuations, while the altcoin sector is brewing a change amidst accumulation. The current market shows a "stability hiding risks" pattern - the long and short game focuses on key levels, and with liquidity shrinking, the operational strategy is becoming more conservative, waiting for next week's macro events to drive a breakthrough in the market.

1. BTC: Tug of war between bulls and bears, the 110,000 mark becomes a life and death line

Bitcoin staged a "flash crash" yesterday, plummeting to a low of $109,600 before quickly rebounding, maintaining a fluctuation above $110,000 on the daily level. On-chain data shows that long-term holders (those holding for over 3 months) realized $1.8 billion in profits on October 15, but this did not trigger panic selling; instead, it led to a "de-risking" reduction in positions. The current market focus is on the short-term bull-bear dividing line at **$110,560**:

- If it falls below 110,560: Bears will open the downward channel, testing support levels of 109,640/108,770/107,460 in sequence, and one must be wary of accelerated declines under a liquidity crisis.

- If it holds steady at 110,560: Bulls are expected to challenge the resistance levels of 112,080/113,570, and even test the historical high of 126,198 USD.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin ETFs have continuously attracted over $17 billion, with institutional holdings doubling compared to last year, demonstrating the hedging value of "digital gold" ahead of unclear Fed policies.

2. ETH: After a pullback and shakeout, it may迎迎 a new offensive.

Ethereum has recently outperformed the broader market. Despite the attempt to breach $4000 in the morning failing, on-chain data shows that whales are increasing their positions against the trend, with open interest contracts growing by 14%, indicating confidence in ETH's future. The current technical indicators show a "healthy correction" characteristic:

- Key support level at $3945: If it cannot break through in the 1-2 hour timeframe, it may retest the 3904/3864 support; if it stabilizes here, ETH still has the momentum to push up to $4000.

- Risk Warning: If US stocks experience a pullback early next week, ETH may follow suit, so it is essential to closely monitor the movements of the Nasdaq index.

From a fundamental perspective, the activity level of Ethereum's ecosystem applications continues to rise, with Layer 2 transaction volume exceeding 5 million transactions per day, laying the foundation for long-term growth.

3. Altcoins: Searching for alpha opportunities in structural differentiation

Under the blood-sucking effect of Bitcoin, most altcoins have suffered a "bloodbath", but some targets are quietly accumulating in the undercurrents:

1. LINK: The leading oracle's on-chain large holders continue to accumulate, and the explosive demand for cross-chain data may become a catalyst.

2. H: The four-hour level is steadily accumulating, and the pullback has not broken the previous low. The short-term target price looks at $0.25.

3. UNI & AAVE: After a decline of 60%, both have solid fundamentals. UNI benefits from the revival of DeFi in summer, while AAVE V4 upgrade combined with the implementation of RWA both have rebound potential.

4. Meme Coins: Speculative sentiment on the BSC chain is high, with $GIGGLE and other old meme coins becoming the "anti-dip king," but caution is needed regarding the risk of hot switch.

However, caution is still needed for APT, AVNT and other assets with a continuously declining TVL, as a short-term rebound may be difficult to change the weak trend.

4. Rules of Operation Before the Fed Decision

Next week's Fed interest rate decision will become a turning point for the market, and the current strategy should follow the principle of "seeking stability while preserving".

1. BTC/ETH Strategy:

- Long Position: Only accumulate in batches at key support levels (such as BTC's 109,640, ETH's 3864), with stop-loss set 5% below the support line.

- Short Position: Follow the trend after a significant drop below the resistance level (such as BTC's 110,560, ETH's 3945), entering and exiting quickly.

- Sideways market: Hold a light position and avoid frequent trading to reduce transaction fees.

2. Altcoin Strategy:

- Prioritize assets with continuous inflow of on-chain funds (such as LINK, H), and avoid projects with shrinking TVL.

- Meme coins only participate in leading segments, "earn and run" during hot rotations.

3. Risk Control:

- Before next week's Fed meeting, keep overall positions within 30% and leave enough cash to deal with black swan events.

- If BTC falls below $106,500 or ETH loses $3,800, the stop-loss mechanism must be activated immediately.

5. Outlook for next week: A macro storm is coming, who will prevail?

The Fed's policy path remains the biggest variable: if it lowers interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, BTC may start a second wave of increase; if hawkish signals exceed expectations, it could trigger a chain reaction in the crypto market. Historical data shows that after the Fed's pivot, BTC's average increase reaches 137% in 6-12 months, but short-term volatility may intensify.

Suggested Action: Wait for the macro developments to land. If BTC holds the support level of $106,500, the medium-term target price remains at $137,000. For those with a higher risk appetite, consider pre-positioning in long-term favorable ETH staking derivatives and RWA assets; conservative investors can continue to hold BTC ETF shares to enjoy the benefits of institutional allocation.

Conclusion: The allure of the crypto market lies in the "certainty within uncertainty." At this stage, rather than blindly bottom-fishing in the fluctuations, it is better to patiently wait for the trend to become clear. Next week's Fed decision may just be the starting point of a new bull market. #CPI数据来袭 #你最看好哪个GateFunMeme？ #比特币行情预测