I posted several updates unsuccessfully and consulted customer service, only to find out which words are prohibited. What you will see next is the text of the update that I modified six times from last night to this morning.

Many friends' comments I've seen in the dynamics are quite pessimistic. Perhaps everyone is scared by the big spike in their respective coins at 1011. I can understand your confusion and anxiety at this moment, after all, there has been a rumor in the market recently that the four-year cycle has ended and the bull market is over.

No one dares to be 100% certain whether the bull run for BTC is over, just as no one dares to be 100% sure that the altcoin season will come again. Everyone has the right to voice their opinions on the market, but not everyone will have independent and profound thoughts on the market trends. Most people just follow the crowd, and most people will go with the flow. This is exactly what the big players like: retail investors chasing high prices and stopping losses at low prices.

Currently, the market still shows a state where large holders of BTC and ETH continue to accumulate, while retail investors have been continuously selling over the past year. This scenario feels familiar; I flipped through my notes from this year and found many thoughts written in two posts from June 20. If you need some psychological comfort or a boost in faith at this moment, I suggest you go back and take a look. Perhaps you can still come to understand some things.

Although the time period has reached the fourth quarter, the backdrop and funding situation of the cryptocurrency market are quite different from what they were at that time. In September, interest rates were lowered, and BTC and ETH have reached new highs. However, the K-line trends and the high similarity of sentiment indicators make one wonder if this could be a "wolf is coming" story.

After reviewing the policy, capital, and technical aspects over the past two days, and considering that the fifth and sixth parts have not yet been issued ((), I remain optimistic about the future trend. I have confidence in my current portfolio and profit expectations, and regardless of what direction and price appear in the short term, I basically know how to respond.

But I don't know your actual situation, so I dare not blindly cheer you on. Writing this is not to encourage you to shout bullishly without thinking; shouting slogans and getting hyped up is useless. A stable mindset and calm thinking are truly helpful. The one who can help you through these tough days is still yourself. If you have a sufficient understanding of the cryptocurrencies you hold, then let's stabilize our mindset and encourage each other to get through it.

If you really have no confidence and feel scared inside, then just leave the market immediately when there is a rebound. The market is very fair, and I believe this opportunity will not take long to come to you.

Keep it up, my friend. Follow your heart; the path is chosen by yourself. No matter what, you must smile and walk it to the end...

Dynamic on October 22, 2025:

Yesterday, I chatted in Chinese MEME with two young people from my team. I listened attentively as they excitedly talked, and two hours passed by unknowingly. This trend started at the end of September, reaching a peak during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, ranging from topics like a certain person's life, customer service of a certain company, to cultivating immortality, making money, old buddies, and then to recent discussions about Da Fang, Hakimi, and Solara. Each popular meme coin often has transaction volumes in the tens of millions or even over a hundred million. From another perspective, it can be seen as directly opening the floodgates of the "shanzhai season," creating a batch of little millionaires.

They understand the gameplay of these types of coins very well, squatting on Twitter for hot topics, checking news on Telegram, and whenever there is an opportunity, they team up and rush in, making quick entries and exits, and indeed, they have made considerable profits during this time. I asked them if this thing can be played for a long time? They clearly told me that it cannot be played for a long time, but there are many coins, and as long as you guard them with care, you can basically capture them. I asked them if this thing is easy to lose money? They said if you lose 20%, you cut half, if you lose 50%, you clear everything, you can't get attached to the fight. I asked them if there are any shady methods for this thing? They said there are, big brother, if you send me a red envelope, I will tell you a few smart money addresses, just buy according to that.

I asked them again if they would buy Bitcoin and stocks? They said they have no money, don't understand, and won't buy.

One has to admire the fresh thinking of the post-2000 generation of crypto players, which may be related to their influences. They naturally pursue things that are quick and concise; they enjoy watching certain short videos and clips, like movie snippets, and prefer reading book notes. However, they find it difficult to calm down and read a full book, watch a complete movie, or even have a serious meal.

I recall the time when I was young and talked with leaders from the 60s and 70s about Wei Bo and Jay Chou. He didn't understand why I liked them, and I couldn't truly grasp his teachings. Time cycles back, so at this moment, I can understand them, and I won't deliberately remind anyone with such nonsense as 'pay attention to risks and take profits'—people need to perceive this market on their own.

My only concern is that they get too caught up in making money, and in a moment of impulse, they might rush into online loans, which could be the biggest pitfall they may face.

During the live broadcast, a friend asked me if I had played in this track, and I said I couldn't play, but I wouldn't stop you from playing. It's not because this track is high-risk; every track in the crypto space is high-risk. For those who lack basic wealth awareness, even the risk of playing spot trading may far exceed that of seasoned players trading contracts. I don't participate in the first-tier meme coins purely because I don't have the genes to seize the opportunity for quick wealth, nor do I have the energy to track and ambush.

Most people enter the crypto space to get rich quickly. Everyone knows that 99.99% of MEMEs will not generate any value; all the wealth effects are created by external funds entering the market for speculation. However, existence itself is reasonable, as everyone has been young and crazy at some point. Back in the day, we played with ICOs, and now playing with Chinese shitcoins doesn't seem fundamentally different; it's all just a game of emotional speculation.

If you have the ability and information channels, pursuing hot on-chain dogecoin is not a problem, after all, it's just a way to make money. But now, the young people in the primary market, the fools have all died out, and what remains are basically seasoned veterans who have been through the slaughter. With my intelligence and ability, I won't be able to compete.

I have seen many teachers who used to lead trades in the secondary market start to guide their followers into this track, perhaps because the secondary market has not been good in the past two years. However, from the era of Solana to BSC, it seems that those who played until the end basically ended up in a big pit.

Thinking back to something an experienced elder once said, there is a hierarchy of disdain in the crypto world. Those who trade contracts look down on spot traders, spot swing traders look down on those who hoard coins, and those who persist in hoarding look down on those who hoard BTC. Looking back now, it seems that the group of greats who encouraged us to hoard BTC back then had the highest understanding and reaped the greatest rewards.

Sigh... writing to this point, I really want to slap myself twice and say sorry to the more than ten bitcoins I once had. )