This Friday is very crucial #广场创作者认证申请上线

On October 24, the United States will announce the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September—this is not only the first important macro data since the federal government shutdown, but also the first CPI report released on a Friday since January 2018, just 5 days before the Federal Reserve meeting on October 29.

Due to the U.S. Department of Labor suspending updates on other core economic data during the shutdown, this CPI will be the only reference for the Federal Reserve to assess the inflation situation. With no employment reports, non-farm data, or producer price index, the market's attention on this data has reached new heights.

According to last month's data, the inflation rate in the United States for August was 2.9%, slightly up from 2.7% in July. Wells Fargo expects inflation to rise slightly to 3.1% in September, still in line with the trend of "moderate disinflation." The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to remain stable, indicating that while inflationary pressures are easing, they have not completely dissipated.

On the market level, traders have already bet on a policy shift. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that futures pricing reflects a 99% probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's October meeting, and approximately an 85% chance of another rate cut in December.

If the CPI is lower than expected and inflation slows down, this will further strengthen expectations for easing and depress the dollar. In the current context of scarce macro signals, the CPI's impact on Bitcoin is particularly direct—once the data is favorable, it may become a catalyst for a short-term bullish outlook in the crypto market.

Specifically, if the core CPI month-on-month increase is below 0.3%, it will support the market's dovish expectations, putting pressure on the dollar while benefiting gold, the stock market, and Bitcoin. However, if inflation remains high, especially if service and housing prices rise more than 0.4% month-on-month, it may boost the dollar and put pressure on risk assets. The crypto market often rallies before data releases, only to see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction after the announcement, accompanied by sharp fluctuations and rapid reversals in capital flows.

The final market direction will depend on how investors reprice risk after the data is released. If the inflation data meets expectations, the market may continue the main theme of "high interest rates but stability," and Bitcoin is likely to continue fluctuating in the high range.

If the core CPI is stronger than expected, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may rise, pushing Bitcoin down from its peak; conversely, if inflation cools, ETF capital inflows may restart, with prices expected to surge towards the range of $117,000 to $120,000.

Conversely, if inflation heats up, funds may flow back to safe-haven assets, and Bitcoin will test the support level of 100,000 USD again.

Traders need to closely monitor the correlation between U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar after data releases: a simultaneous rise in both will suppress Bitcoin, while a simultaneous decline suggests a recovery in risk appetite. Overall, volatility will remain high, and whether ETF inflows can continue will be key to determining Bitcoin's future trend.