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Interpreting ETH trends with a 1-hour candlestick period:
[Price Trend Analysis]
1. K-line pattern: 1-hour level: Recent price has been fluctuating in the 3850-3900 range, forming multiple upper and lower shadows, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears. At 21:00, a bearish candle broke below the EMA7, indicating short-term pullback pressure. Daily level: On October 18, a long upper shadow bullish candle closed, testing 3927 before retreating, indicating significant selling pressure above 3900. The previous low of 3819 has not been broken, forming short-term support.
2. Technical Indicators: MACD: 1-hour DIF(7.5) crosses below DEA(3.77), with a decreasing histogram, indicating weakening short-term bullish momentum; Daily MACD(-90.87) shows a bottom divergence but has not formed a golden cross, requiring confirmation of a trend reversal. RSI: 1-hour RSI(51.24) is neutral to weak, not overbought or oversold; Daily RSI(40.81) has exited the oversold area but lacks sufficient rebound momentum. EMA: 1-hour EMA7(3874.95) has been broken, and if EMA30(3863.76) is lost, it will accelerate the downward trend; Daily EMA120(3868.26) is a key resistance.
3. Trading Volume: 1-hour level: The trading volume at 21:00 is (8546), which has shrunk, indicating insufficient willingness to chase prices along with the price pullback. Daily level: On October 18, the trading volume of (172056) is significantly lower compared to the previous day (830127), showing that the rebound lacks funding support.
Key levels: Resistance: 3900 (round number + previous high), 3927 (swing high) Support: 3850 (round number + EMA30), 3819 (previous low)
【Buy and Sell Points】
Buy-in point 1: 3850 USDT (integer support level + EMA30 overlap, previous low 3819 not broken, short-term buying may intervene)
Buying Point 2: 3820 USDT (the previous low near 3819, if the pullback does not break, it will form a double bottom, high probability of rebound)
Long stop loss point: 3800 USDT (may accelerate downward after breaking the previous low of 3819, stop loss set below the integer level) Sell point one: 3890 USDT (1-hour EMA7 resistance + close to 3900 integer pressure, clear selling pressure at the previous high of 3893) Sell point two: 3920 USDT (daily long upper shadow high near 3927, strong resistance area)
Short stop loss point: 3940 USDT (may test 3950 after breaking 3927, set stop loss at a higher integer level)
Logical Verification:
1. Buy interval: 3850→3820 (-0.8%), within 1% but with a safety margin.
2. Stop-loss distance: 3820→3800 (-0.5%), less than half of the buying interval (0.4%).
3. Selling interval: 3890→3920 (+0.8%), stop loss 3940 (+0.5%) similarly.
4. Profit and Loss Ratio: Long (3850→3900/Stop Loss 3800) Risk-Reward Ratio 1:2, Short (3890→3850/Stop Loss 3940) 1:1.3.