Recently, the traditional four-year cycle theory of the Bitcoin market is facing challenges. Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, pointed out in his latest analysis that the price movement of Bitcoin is closely related to the monetary policy of the world's major economies, especially the changes in liquidity of the US dollar and the Chinese yuan.

Hayes emphasized that the transition of Bitcoin between bull and bear markets is not solely dependent on investor sentiment, but is closely related to the macroeconomic environment. When the United States or China implements tightening policies, Bitcoin often peaks and falls; conversely, when these countries adopt loose policies, Bitcoin prices tend to rise.

The current market environment indeed presents characteristics different from the past. The traditionally closely watched "halving cycle" seems to have given way to broader macroeconomic factors. The Federal Reserve has begun signaling interest rate cuts, and China is also taking measures to stimulate economic growth. If these two largest global economies simultaneously adopt easing policies, this round of Bitcoin price increase may be prolonged and show a more stable growth trend.

This new model driven by macroeconomic factors may break the four-year cycle pattern of Bitcoin and create a new market dynamic. Investors need to closely monitor changes in global economic policy, rather than relying solely on traditional cycle theory.

As the market environment evolves, Bitcoin investment strategies also need to be adjusted accordingly. Investors should pay more attention to macro factors such as global economic policy and liquidity changes, rather than overly relying on historical cyclical patterns. This shift may indicate that the cryptocurrency market has entered a more mature and complex phase.

Nevertheless, market participants must remain cautious, as the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market still exists. In this rapidly changing environment, continuous learning and adapting to new market dynamics will be the key to success.