I finished my updates yesterday, went out for a late-night snack and had a little drink with a few frens. I haven't slept so soundly in a long time, I didn't wake up until noon. Deep sleep is indeed quite comfortable.

Last night a fren asked me, saying that after writing updates for so long, what have I gained? At this age, do I plan to become an internet celebrity? I smiled, actually looking back at these years, I have gained quite a lot: knowledge, money, and a mindset. This round of the bull market, although it is indeed fraught with difficulties, BTC has risen from 1.5 to 12.5. If we didn't seize the opportunities in this, we should reflect more on our own issues.
Since I tried live streaming, I do have a bit of an impulse to keep it going. Compared to writing dynamic articles, speaking freely during a live stream feels simpler and easier. However, for someone my age, trying to navigate this internet space requires a lot of learning. Perhaps due to my professional experience, I really hope to create a company similar to a training institution, but unfortunately, the resources around me and my personal abilities are not enough to support this idea, so I just let it be a daydream and laugh it off.
But I will still try to take some time to engage with the live streaming and video sector; I don't want to be out of touch with the times, and I especially don't want to be out of touch with young people. So in the future, you should gradually see some changes in this little dynamic content.
While browsing the news in the afternoon, I saw Trump's arrangement of the new Federal Reserve Board member Bowman’s speech. The speech should be quite straightforward; he said that if the economic data is weak, the Federal Reserve may suddenly accelerate its policy shift. In plain language, this means: if the job market continues to be weak, they will not only lower interest rates, but they might also do it faster and more aggressively, and even prepare to get rid of non-government debt assets to fully protect the economy.
I went to watch the original video, and it does say that. The keywords he mentioned, "faster and fiercer," are indeed crucial. Bowman, as a hawkish member of the Federal Reserve, if he suddenly hints at accelerating adjustments at this point, it suggests that economic pressures are greater than they appear. This essentially implies that the liquidity gate is about to loosen significantly.
After the interest rate cuts in September 2024, the US stock market and the crypto market both initially retreated and created a golden pit, then the Federal Reserve made a sharp turn and released dovish statements. BTC rose by 40% in the three months starting from October. If this interest rate cut speeds up, institutional funds may rush in faster than retail investors, especially for mainstream coins with ETF expectations in October, which are likely to replicate the rebound rhythm of the last round. However, friends familiar with the crypto market know that generally, before and after the policy is implemented, the market is extremely prone to frequent washout situations. Don't rush to chase rebounds during the news vacuum period, and do not blindly short during these phases.
In recent updates, I have been organizing and answering questions left over from the live stream. While chatting with a few frens in the comments section, I noticed two interesting phenomena worth discussing. After this monetary policy meeting, they clearly know that the market may experience a pullback, and they have the idea of reducing positions to free up funds for hedging in mind. However, their approach is: sell the profitable ones, hold onto the losing ones, and only reduce positions on the coins that have made money, while those that have lost or were just bought not long ago, they simply refuse to touch.
The reason is quite simple: those who are making money sell to secure their gains, while those who are losing wait to break even before leaving. So, what do you think will happen? The good coins that were bought at low prices in the portfolio are being sold off one by one, leaving only worthless coins. As time goes on, the market becomes increasingly frustrating, and the desire to recoup losses grows stronger, ultimately dragging down overall returns.
This is not a joke; this is a true story. This is the operating mindset of many people from 2024 to now, which is a typical cognitive bias. Why do people always "sell the winners and hold the losers"? The reason behind this is two psychological traps. The first is loss aversion: the pain of a loss is more intense than the pleasure of a gain. The second is the anchoring effect: people are always fixated on the purchase price and feel dissatisfied unless they recover their investment.
So most people are used to taking a small profit and cutting losses, while holding on to losses stubbornly; this is the most common mistake in investing. I have gone through such a phase myself, and repeatedly lost my principal in this mental trap. In the past two bull and bear markets, I lost at least 700,000 to 800,000 because of this mindset. After paying this tuition, I almost want to slap myself twice.
Another phenomenon is that some frens like to operate several short-term coins at the same time, buying a bit of whatever is popular in the market or recommended by some big names. However, during the process, they inevitably treat each trade as an independent entity, constantly fixating on "how much this trade earned, how much that trade lost". As a result, when the market rises, they don't know which one to sell, and when it falls, they don't know which one to cut. In the end, they just end up confused and decide to leave it be.
Having a portfolio that is overly complex has never been a good thing. You may seem to have many opportunities, but in reality, the risks are substantial. A person's energy is limited, and the market's movements do not care whether your trades are profitable or losing. Trading returns should be viewed in terms of the overall situation and should also be assessed in the long term. Truly mature players only care about the overall position and profit trend. When the market enters a downtrend, positions should be reduced regardless of whether they are losing or making money; when the market enters an uptrend, positions should be increased without hesitation, even if there are losing trades in hand. However, if your positions are too chaotic, it will lead to delayed decision-making, ultimately resulting in losses.
In the next phase, if you are still holding a bunch of losing altcoins, it might be better to directly choose 1-2 mainstream coins with relatively high certainty of returns. Of course, these are just some of my personal opinions and views, and they may not necessarily be correct, so you can refer to them with caution. #BTC走势分析 #GateLayer正式上线