Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: The Arrival of "Super Central Bank Week", Fed's Rate Cut Cycle Set to Restart

In the past week, the moderate CPI and PPI inflation reports, along with a surge in initial jobless claims, have paved the way for the Fed to at least cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting. The upcoming week will be a highly anticipated "Super Central Bank Week," as Trump is about to welcome his long-awaited moment. The Fed will meet next week to formulate monetary policy, and its decision could set the tone for market performance for the remainder of the year. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:

Monday 20:30, US September Fed Manufacturing Index;

Tuesday 20:30, US August Retail Sales MoM, US August Import Price Index MoM;

2:00 PM on Thursday, the Fed's FOMC will announce the interest rate decision and the summary of economic projections;

On Thursday at 2:30, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Thursday 20:30, Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13;

Thursday 22:00, US August Conference Board Leading Economic Index MoM.

The Fed will hold a policy meeting next week, and it is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, with even a 7% chance of a 50 basis point cut. However, according to market pricing, a more likely scenario is that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings.
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