The premise of a good opportunity: there must be enough divergence.

Early opportunities with a higher win rate rely on sufficient divergence.
When an "opportunity" has gathered a lot of heat and attention, I will be more cautious;
And for the projects/platforms I originally had high hopes for, if there is persistent FUD, I become even more optimistic—discrepancies = chips and expectations are not crowded.

The most typical example is Bitcoin: from 10k → 120k, only a few have been able to make clear judgments; even today, when saying "$1M in 10 years," most people still don't believe it.

My judgment basis
• Heat threshold: Media intensive + Consistent bullish sentiment on social media → Lower expectations/Slow down actions
• Emotion comparison: Bull and bear equally balanced ≈ Better layout period; Consistent expectations → Increase vigilance
• Information/Structure: Confirm whether there is still an information advantage or structural mismatch.

Conclusion
Discrepancies are the fuel for returns, and congestion is the starting point of risk. By insisting on independent thinking and judgment, and not following the crowd, one can achieve excess returns in a future that is "not yet widely believed."
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