Market Observation and Analysis: Bitcoin and Ether Technical Focus on CME Gap Repair

Macroeconomic Environment and Policy

Core inflation data in the United States has been below expectations for five consecutive months, but there are differing opinions in the market regarding future trends. Some believe that the impact of tariffs will manifest greater price pressures in July and August, while others emphasize that weak demand limits corporate pricing. There are also differing voices within the Federal Reserve, with some officials suggesting a possible lowering of the threshold for interest rate cuts, while others advocate for maintaining a tight policy for a longer period. Currently, the Federal Reserve tends to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, wary of misleading short-term data, and reiterates the importance of central bank independence.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. Congress has passed the establishment of "Cryptocurrency Week" to accelerate the legislative process. Among them, the "GENIUS Act" will become the core of the regulatory framework, which will bring the hundreds of billions of dollars stablecoin market under regulation, requiring reserves to be in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. This move not only standardizes the market but also has the potential to consolidate the digital hegemony of the U.S. dollar and create a large demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. The more far-reaching impact lies in restructuring the global payment system, as some large technology companies have begun to lay out dollar/HKD stablecoins, attempting to establish an efficient cross-border settlement network. This shift in the regulatory paradigm may strengthen Bitcoin's position as a digital gold asset allocation.

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis

Bitcoin has entered a correction phase after reaching a historical high of $123,000. Multiple analysts are focusing on the technical repair of the CME futures gap, predicting that the Bitcoin price may pull back to the range of $113,800 to $117,000 to fill the gap, before possibly迎来 a new round of increases. Some analysts pointed out that if the price cannot quickly break through the current consolidation area, it may push the Bitcoin price back up to around $120,000. From a cyclical perspective, the current expansion has only been in place for 12 days, leaving space until the 15-30 day historical cycle.

Ethereum's market cap share has surpassed 10%, and its demand growth is seen as a significant turning point in the cryptocurrency space. On the technical side, analysts are also paying attention to the CME gap, believing that after filling the gap between $2,830 and $2,925, Ethereum is likely to break upward past $3,200. Some viewpoints suggest that the increase in Ethereum trading activity is linked to enhanced correlation with small-cap stocks, providing a rallying momentum against the backdrop of expected liquidity easing.

The altcoin market is showing characteristics of sector rotation: payment tokens have started first, while major coins are gaining momentum, and some ecological projects and Layer 1 projects are forming a relay team. The popularity of Chinese meme narratives remains high, with multiple related tokens reaching all-time highs. AI-related projects are also gaining attention, with some tokens experiencing significant increases.

Market Data Overview

As of July 16, 12:00 HKT, the main market indicators are as follows:

• Bitcoin price: $117,798 (Year-to-date +26.05%), daily trading volume $66.923 billion
• Ethereum price: $2,954 (Year-to-date -5.91%), daily trading volume $41.523 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 62.9%, ETH 10.2%
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.4%/50.6%
• Sector performance: DeFi up 5.98%, GameFi up 4.52%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 106,515 people globally were liquidated, with a total amount of 355 million USD.

ETF fund flow (as of July 15):

• Bitcoin ETF: +$403 million, net inflow for 9 consecutive days
• Ethereum ETF: +$192 million, net inflow for 8 consecutive days

Recent Important Events

• July 16: Binance Wallet conducts Hyperion (RION) Bonding Curve version TGE
• July 16: Eclipse opens ES token airdrop
• July 16: The House Ways and Means Committee held a hearing on digital asset tax policy.
• July 17: A trading platform Alpha launched Caldera (ERA)
• July 17: Plasma: XPL public sale begins
• July 17: The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions
• July 17: New York Federal Reserve President Williams speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy

Multiple projects will have token unlocks in the near future, including Arbitrum, UXLINK, Solv Protocol, ApeCoin, and ZKsync.

Market Highlights

• Two multi-signature wallets, possibly belonging to the same entity, collectively spent over 100 million USD to purchase 33,366 Ether.
• Movement completed the buyback of $MOVE tokens, with approximately 180 million tokens repurchased.
• A certain bank has launched Bitcoin and Ethereum spot trading services for institutional clients.
• Ondo Finance acquires Strangelove, accelerating RWA platform development
• SharpLink recently raised approximately $413 million in net proceeds, with some of the funds already invested in Ether.
• A giant whale institution reduced its holdings by 15,000 Ether through Wintermute.
• Pump.Fun allegedly transferred 98,000 SOL to a buyback address, worth approximately 16 million USD.

The current market is in a technical adjustment phase, and investors should closely follow the CME gap repair situation and changes in macroeconomic policies to manage risk appropriately.