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The Ethereum Cancun upgrade is approaching, and short-term revenue may be hindered, but long-term development is still optimistic.
Ethereum faces multiple challenges, but the long-term development prospects remain positive.
The upcoming Ethereum Cancun/Deneb upgrade is expected to significantly reduce the block space fees for Rollup operators, which may adversely affect Ethereum's fee revenue in the short term. At the same time, as the interoperability between Rollup projects and other high-performance, low-cost settlement and data availability chains increases, the performance of ETH may be impacted.
In the long run, if the modular theory of blockchain is validated, the main source of network fees for layer one public chains like Ethereum and Celestia will be second layer Rollup service providers, rather than end users. Additionally, as second layer public chains increasingly adopt account abstraction, the primary group holding Ethereum to pay for block space in the future is likely to be Rollup operators, rather than ordinary users.
Since 2023, transaction activity on Ethereum Layer 2 has significantly increased. The rapid rise of emerging L2 projects like Base is noteworthy. Currently, the sequencers of Optimism, Base, and Arbitrum have generated $140 million in revenue from user fees.
The Cancun/Deneb upgrade will create dedicated block space for Rollup transactions, significantly reducing the cost of Rollup fees. This may lead to a decline in Ethereum network revenue in the short term. At the same time, due to some challenges that still exist with Rollup technology, it is expected that most of Ethereum's revenue will still come from end users rather than L2.
In the long term, as blockchain-based applications become widely adopted, Ethereum's revenue may rise, and the usage rate of transaction execution Rollups will significantly increase. Lower L2 fees can bring new blockchain application scenarios to various industries such as gaming and social media. Moreover, the emergence of multiple highly optimized data availability layers may accelerate the migration of Ethereum L2 to other cheaper DA layers.
Despite facing challenges, Ethereum's competitive advantage as the most decentralized and secure general-purpose public blockchain may continue to attract new users. The development of technologies such as account abstraction in the future, along with the maturity of restaking solutions, will have an impact on the value accumulation of Ethereum.
Overall, although Ethereum may face issues such as declining revenue in the short term, in the long run, with the advancement of Rollup technology and upgrades to Ethereum itself, its development prospects are still worth looking forward to. In the future, Rollup operators may become the main holders of ETH, while ordinary users will hold more token representations of ETH.