Alts ETF application rises, is a new round of speculation about to come?

Trump recently announced a high-profile cryptocurrency strategic reserve plan. Although the market response has been lukewarm, this move has attracted the attention of traditional financial institutions. Following the approval of ETF applications for LTC, DOGE, SOL, and XRP from several large institutions by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in February this year, favorable policies and regulatory easing have led to a wave of applications for altcoin ETFs.

Latest altcoins applying for ETF

The application process for a U.S. ETF typically takes 6-8 months, including the issuer submitting the S-1/S-3 forms, the exchange submitting the 19b-4 form, the public comment period, SEC review feedback, and finally approval. Here are a few recent alts that applied for an ETF and their recent market performance:

ADA (Cardano)

On February 25, the SEC confirmed that it has accepted the listing application for a spot Cardano (ADA) ETF submitted by a certain exchange on behalf of a certain asset management company. This application was submitted on February 10 and will be custodied by a certain custodian company, with a certain bank responsible for asset services and administrative management.

On March 2, Trump mentioned cryptocurrencies like ADA as strategic reserves on social media, and that day the price of ADA rose over 70%.

DOT (Polkadot)

On February 25, a certain exchange submitted a 19b-4 application for a DOT ETF on behalf of a certain asset management company.

HBAR (Hedera)

On February 24 and March 4, a certain exchange submitted 19b-4 application documents for HBAR ETFs for two different companies.

Hedera is regarded as one of the dark horses in the cryptocurrency market. Currently, a fund company has submitted an application for an HBAR physical staking product to a European exchange, while a spot HBAR ETF application has also emerged in the United States. Investors are closely watching the regulatory developments following the elections.

AXL (Axelar)

On March 6, a certain company submitted an S-1 application for its AXL ETF.

In addition, the former legal chief of a certain trading platform has joined Axelar's new Institutional Advisory Council, which is dedicated to promoting regulatory coordination and institutional adoption.

An AXL trust fund launched by a capital company will provide institutional investors with investment opportunities in blockchain interconnection technology, connecting multiple Web3 ecosystems.

APT (Aptos)

On March 6, a certain asset management company officially submitted an S-1 application to the SEC for the registration of a possible Aptos ETF.

Aptos is collaborating with major asset management companies to seek the launch of an ETF listed in the United States, making it one of the few crypto protocols globally to achieve this milestone.

Prior to this, the asset management company launched the Aptos Staking ETP on the Swiss stock exchange in November 2024.

Current Status of Ethereum ETF

The Ethereum ETF officially launched on the U.S. capital markets on July 23 last year, when the price of Ethereum was around $3200. Data shows that in the six months since its launch, the net inflow into the Ethereum ETF reached $2.76 billion, equivalent to nearly 1% of the total amount of Ethereum purchased by Wall Street. However, the current price of Ethereum has now dropped to around $2300.

On one hand, this is due to a certain asset management company continuously selling Ethereum ETFs, becoming the largest seller in the market; on the other hand, Ethereum is more sensitive to large holders' selling compared to Bitcoin, and it is still digesting the potential selling pressure.

However, there are reports that entities related to Trump are continuing to increase their holdings of Ethereum. The net inflow of ETFs and the continuous purchases by Trump-related institutions reflect the confidence of long-term investors in Ethereum in an increasingly open market environment.

Crypto ETF 2.0 Under the Trump Administration

After Trump returned to the White House, it brought significant benefits to the entire crypto market. An analyst pointed out that before Trump won the election, the approval probability of ETFs for assets other than Litecoin was below 5%. It is expected that as applications enter the approval process and the SEC's decision deadline approaches, the approval probability of cryptocurrency ETFs will continue to rise.

###'s impact on the crypto market

Analysts expect the SEC to make a decision on the proposed altcoin ETF in October this year. If the altcoin ETFs are approved one after another, positive news in the future may continue to attract more conservative and institutional investors, thereby changing the investor structure in the market. This could lead to increased liquidity, rising prices, and changes in the investor composition.

In addition, due to the existence of regulatory arbitrage, the ETFs launched by the United States may prompt other countries and regions to follow suit. This trend could accelerate the transition of cryptocurrency from a fringe asset to a mainstream financial instrument, enhancing its status in the global economy.

As the Trump administration continues to support the cryptocurrency industry, various states in the U.S. are gradually introducing "strategic Bitcoin reserve" legislation. Coupled with the Republican control of both chambers of Congress, cryptocurrency-related bills may have a chance to pass. Once the legislation is successful, cryptocurrency could become a brand new asset class, which would have epoch-making significance for the crypto market.

potential ETF application hot

The year 2025 may see a peak in applications for altcoin ETFs. Institutions predict that the surge in demand for cryptocurrency ETFs will push their total assets in North America to surpass those of precious metal ETFs, making them the third largest asset class after stocks and bonds.

Especially altcoins that are highly correlated with the US mainland are more likely to be favored. For example, ONDO (Ondo Finance), as a representative of the RWA track, may be the first to obtain approval for an ETF linked to tokenized government bonds. If the FIT21 bill passes this year, establishing the principle of "decentralized protocol exemption from securities laws," mainstream US DeFi tokens such as UNI (Uniswap), MKR (MakerDAO), and AAVE (Aave) may accelerate their integration into the traditional financial system.