Ethereum (ETH) has recently been performing like an experienced hunter, waiting for the right moment. Currently, the price of ETH is hovering in the range of $3560-3590, much like a predator lying in wait in the grass, anticipating signals from Fed policy.

The market conditions are exhibiting a typical oscillating pattern. From the 1-hour candlestick chart, ETH seems like a "Buddhist youth", calmly existing within a narrow range. The $3736 mark constitutes strong resistance, and a breakthrough requires a powerful positive news catalyst. On the other hand, the moving averages in the $3623-$3562 range provide short-term support for ETH.

Recently, the candlestick patterns show an alternating "small bullish and small bearish" trend, reflecting a balance of bullish and bearish forces in the market. In terms of trading volume, the main funds are showing a net inflow trend, with the volume ratio maintaining around 12%, suggesting that large funds are secretly positioning themselves, but it has not yet reached the stage of full-scale attack.

This kind of volatile market often confuses retail investors the most. Looking back at last week's ETH performance, after three days of sideways consolidation, a sudden large bullish candle erupted, catching short sellers off guard. Although history does not repeat itself simply, the basic logic of market operations is often similar.

At the macroeconomic level, the latest US Services PMI for July is 50.3, below the expected 52, indicating a weakening economic growth momentum, which has raised market concerns about a recession. This data may have a short-term impact on ETH. US stock futures fell in response, the dollar index retreated, while Bitcoin and gold saw slight increases, reflecting investors' oscillation between seeking safety and betting on the Fed possibly easing monetary policy.

For ETH, the uncertainty of this macroeconomic environment is both a challenge and an opportunity. Investors need to closely monitor the Fed's upcoming policy direction, as it could be a key factor in breaking the current market deadlock.