The global trade order is facing the biggest reshaping since World War II, and Bitcoin's "digital gold" status is strengthening.

In March, the global market fell into uncertainty due to policies, eager to find new anchors. The US stock market accelerated its valuation reconstruction, and the cryptocurrency market also fluctuated accordingly. After the new tariff policy was introduced on April 2, the global trade order faced deep restructuring, forcing countries to urgently adjust their economic policies. At this moment, it is particularly important to maintain patience. As the new order gradually takes shape, market sentiment is expected to improve.

The Trump administration officially announced the implementation of a "comprehensive equivalent tariff" policy, imposing a basic tariff of at least 10% on all imported goods and additional taxes on about 60 countries with significant trade deficits. This marks the most intense reshaping wave of the global trade order since World War II.

After the news was released, the market experienced significant fluctuations. U.S. stocks and the dollar plummeted sharply, with the dollar index falling below the 104 mark. Nasdaq index futures crashed over 4%, while S&P 500 index futures dropped by 3.5%. The stocks of the seven major U.S. tech giants saw particularly notable declines. Funds flowed into safe-haven assets, with spot gold prices soaring to a historic high of $3160 per ounce.

The tax rate and range of this tariff adjustment are far higher than Wall Street's previous expectations. Investors are concerned that the tariff war will ultimately impact the foundations of U.S. economic growth. First is the risk of supply chain disruptions. Second is the looming concern of an inflationary spiral. Some analyses indicate that, with the addition of countermeasures, the U.S. CPI could be pushed up by 2 to 2.8 percentage points.

Multiple institutions have significantly raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession. In March, some economic data indicators in the U.S. showed a decline. Although the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, the final value of the consumer confidence index dropped from 64.7 in February to 57, which was lower than expected. At the same time, the core PCE price index year-on-year still reached 2.8%, confirming the dilemma of "slowing economic growth and stubborn inflation."

The Federal Reserve expressed concerns about economic uncertainty during the March interest rate meeting. On one hand, economic growth is showing signs of slowdown; on the other hand, inflation remains quite sticky. This puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma regarding policy decisions. In March, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.5%. After the announcement of the new tariff policy, the market increased bets that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June.

The impact of tariff policies extends far beyond the domestic economy and monetary policy of the United States. The "reciprocal tariff" plan promoted by Trump aims to both increase fiscal revenue and use it as leverage to force other countries to lower tariffs or make policy changes. Currently, major economies are formulating countermeasure lists, and global trade friction may shift from "localized conflicts" to "systemic confrontation." The future global economy and financial markets will still need to bear pressure in this uncertainty.

The US stock market continued to decline in March, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping 8.7% and 12.3% respectively in the first quarter of 2025, marking the largest quarterly drop since 2022. Since Trump's election in November 2024, the S&P 500 index has fallen from 6200 points to 5572 points, a decline of over 10%, with a market value evaporating by 4 trillion dollars.

In the past two years, U.S. stocks have attracted global funds due to the "TINA" effect, accounting for over 50% of the global stock market's market capitalization. However, as the economic cycle progresses, high valuations are difficult to maintain, and institutions have begun to lower their expectations. Goldman Sachs has reduced its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6500 points to 6200 points; Morgan Stanley warns that 5500 points may be the starting point for a technical rebound, but it requires corporate earnings to hit bottom for support.

The confusion of U.S. policy signals further exacerbates market panic. Trump urges interest rate cuts while not ruling out the possibility of a recession; White House officials downplay recession risks on one hand, while admitting to the pains of the transition on the other. Contradictory statements leave investors bewildered, leading to a sell-off of the "big 7" tech stocks.

At the end of March, some rebound in the U.S. stock market reflected expectations for a "softening" of policies, but the tariff policy on April 2 proved this optimistic expectation to be unfounded. Some institutions warned that the risk-reward ratio of unidirectional bets on U.S. stocks has significantly deteriorated, and investors need to rely more on diversification strategies.

Bitcoin is also affected by market fluctuations and policy uncertainties, but its performance is relatively strong. In March, it showed a "V-shaped" fluctuation, with a monthly decline of only 2.09%, better than the Nasdaq index's decline of 8.2%. Bitcoin has emerged with an independent market trend, no longer moving in sync with tech stocks.

In mid to late March, with the U.S. SEC abolishing SAB 121, institutional buying, and the Federal Reserve signaling interest rate cuts, Bitcoin experienced a strong rebound. Overall, the adjustment in March was more of a technical correction rather than a trend decline.

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The U.S. government's recognition and regulatory process for crypto assets is becoming increasingly clear. On March 6, Trump signed an executive order to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve," officially managing Bitcoin as a permanent national asset. The SEC has begun to relax its hardline stance on cryptocurrencies, holding roundtable discussions and shifting from "enforcement-centric" to "cooperation and rule-making." After the repeal of SAB 121, traditional financial institutions are launching crypto custody services, and a significant influx of institutional funds through banking channels is expected in the second quarter of 2025.

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Institutional investors' enthusiasm for crypto assets, especially Bitcoin, continues to rise. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warned in his annual letter to investors that if the U.S. cannot effectively manage its debt and fiscal deficit, the dollar's status as the global reserve currency may be replaced by emerging digital assets such as Bitcoin.

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With the implementation of tariff policies, the economic outlook of the United States is uncertain. If the economy does not fall into a deep recession and the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in June, Bitcoin is expected to see a trend reversal in the second quarter. During periods of economic instability, the scarcity and safe-haven properties of Bitcoin will become more pronounced. Once market risk appetite rebounds, Bitcoin, as an emerging asset class, is likely to be the first to break through key resistance levels and welcome a reevaluation of its value.

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In March, the market fluctuated between "stagflation concerns" and "policy easing." In the long term, if tariffs drive up inflation and erode the credit of the dollar, it may prompt capital to shift towards non-sovereign assets. The key variables that will reshape the new global financial order have emerged, and whether Bitcoin can shake the dollar's hegemony is worth attention.

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