Recent economic data has been less than ideal, but the market's expectation for a Fed rate cut still exists. Inflation shows an upward trend, and the unemployment rate has not exceeded expectations, while the tariff policy has not been officially implemented. Based on the current data alone, a rate cut is indeed challenging. However, internal pressure within the Fed is increasing, with some committee members even publicly supporting a rate cut in September.

Personally, I believe that if the market decline is due to recession fears, it may be too early to worry. Market sentiment is expected to gradually stabilize, and a true recession may not arrive until around 2026. The probability of an economic recession in 2025 is not high. Currently, the unemployment rate of 4.2% is still relatively low in U.S. history, and we need to wait until the unemployment rate exceeds 4.5% to make a judgment.

If the market concerns are not about a recession, but rather about the Fed's interest rate cuts, the current sentiment has improved compared to when the data was released. The statements from Kuger and Williams have brought the number of committee members supporting a rate cut in September to four. It is not impossible to persuade more people to support a rate cut in the coming month.

From multiple perspectives, the current situation is not very pessimistic. Tariff issues with major trading partners such as Mexico and China continue to be postponed, and trade relations with the EU, Japan, and South Korea have also stabilized. The current trade policy towards India seems more like a warning than a serious threat, and there is no systemic risk visible at the moment.

Based on the above analysis, I tend to continue holding a long position. Although I do not expect new highs, I still have some confidence that it will return to the previous moving average levels. Of course, this is just a personal opinion and may not be accurate. If my prediction is correct, I will come back to share; if it is wrong, I will accept criticism gracefully.