The stablecoin bill is just the beginning of the regulatory process.

Recently, the United States has introduced its first dedicated regulatory bill for cryptocurrencies, which is a milestone. However, this is just the beginning of the regulatory process, and a more complex framework is still being built. The new regulations will allow the use of ETH or Bitcoin for daily consumption and are expected to be included in pension and 401k account investment options.

Although the passage of the bill is a significant positive, the market reaction is surprising. Bitcoin prices have fallen below last week's levels this week, indicating a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon. Marginal assets are unusually active, reflecting a strong speculative atmosphere in the market.

The most notable aspect of the "GENIUS" bill is the movements of banks. Several major banks have indicated that they will launch their own stablecoins or tokenized deposits, suggesting that the transformation process may accelerate beyond expectations. These banks have assembled digital asset teams numbering in the hundreds and invested heavily in research and development.

The payment industry landscape may be reshaped

The deep integration of cryptocurrency and financial technology is reshaping financial infrastructure. Traditional payment systems are facing structural changes, and the importance of payment giants may significantly decline in the next decade.

However, companies like Visa and MasterCard have accumulated decades of experience in customer service, dispute resolution, and merchant management, making these core competencies difficult to replace in the short term. If giants like Alipay enter the stablecoin space, the market competition landscape will become even more complex.

In a declining yield environment, the interest spread revenue model of companies like Circle will face challenges. Investors may turn to the DeFi space in search of higher returns. The market will show a diversified development trend, and in the next three years, segmented stablecoins targeting different scenarios may emerge.

Winners and Losers under the New Regulatory Framework

Traditional financial institutions may become the main beneficiaries. Infrastructure banks can earn substantial channel fees when connecting traditional finance with on-chain activities. Tokenized money market funds are expected to achieve "smart asset management".

The DeFi sector may become the biggest beneficiary. The on-chain characteristics of stablecoins will guide a massive influx of funds into various DeFi protocols. Regional banks may become the biggest losers, as their long-term decline trend may accelerate.

As the scope of asset tokenization expands, the traditional business model of investment banks will also be impacted. Cryptographic technology and on-chain infrastructure are reshaping the structure of capital markets, and we may be witnessing the dawn of this transformation.

The Logic Behind ETH's Rebound

The ETH/BTC exchange rate has surged recently, reflecting a significant shift in market expectations. The large-scale buying by digital asset custody institutions has become a major driving force, with the core logic being that Ethereum will serve as the infrastructure layer for the stablecoin ecosystem.

Ethereum is undergoing several key changes:

1. Organizational culture innovation: Efficiency issues have been improved, and the interaction model with external institutions has fundamentally changed.

2. Improved regulatory environment: The implementation of stablecoin legislation provides certainty, and events such as Circle's IPO enhance the credibility of the asset class.

3. Enhanced value capture capability: As a foundational infrastructure, Ethereum's value positioning is clearer.

These changes constitute a substantial improvement in the fundamentals. The current Ethereum ecosystem is experiencing a positive cycle, which is a typical characteristic of a qualitative change in fundamentals.

New Trends in the Digital Asset Management Industry

Digital asset management companies are emerging rapidly. Innovative projects such as the on-chain national bond company DFTV are quickly validated by the market, prompting multiple institutions to follow suit. This field is experiencing explosive growth.

The key to success lies in the economies of scale, which requires the token itself to have a sufficiently large market value, mainstream market recognition, and a clear value proposition. Execution capability is the decisive factor, and the team needs to possess both native cryptocurrency marketing skills and the ability to utilize traditional financial tools.

The market funding shows polarization. The high price-to-earnings ratio benchmark effect of Coinbase makes the Pre-IPO rounds more attractive. Early investments such as seed rounds remain active, but financing in the intermediate stage is relatively quiet.

Macroeconomic Situation Analysis

Current macro data meets expectations, and there is insufficient reason to cut interest rates. The impact of tariff policies has begun to show, with significant price increases in certain categories. Trump's threat to fire the Federal Reserve Chairman is concerning, as it has substantially weakened the independence of the Federal Reserve.

The loss of the Federal Reserve's independence will lead to a deterioration of long-term inflation. The possibility of interest rate cuts this year is virtually eliminated, and the Federal Reserve must defend its policy independence. Even if some board members are replaced, the overall stance of the FOMC may still remain relatively hawkish.

Under the backdrop of tense Sino-U.S. trade relations, China-Europe relations also face challenges. The vulnerabilities of the European economy are increasingly prominent, and there is a need to be vigilant against the risks of China potentially dumping products in the European market.

Overall, the introduction of the stablecoin legislation marks the beginning of a new phase for the cryptocurrency industry, but this is just the start. The continuous improvement of market structure and regulatory framework is where fundamental changes lie. Investors need to closely monitor policy trends, market dynamics, and the development of emerging business models.