The mysterious Whale made a huge profit in the prediction market by successfully predicting the election results.

A mysterious trader is expected to make nearly $50 million in profits after a series of bold bets related to the presidential election. This trader, known as the "Trump Whale", not only wagered that Trump would win the presidential election but also predicted that he would win the popular vote—a result that many political observers consider unlikely. The trader, who calls himself "Théo", also bet that Trump would win key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Théo places bets using four anonymous accounts on a certain cryptocurrency prediction market. Although he refuses to disclose his true identity, he has been in contact with a well-known media outlet since mid-October when media reports drew attention. In multiple communications, Théo stated that his bets are essentially a judgment on the accuracy of polling data. He claims to be a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks and has been using his mathematical knowledge to analyze American polling data since this summer.

Théo believes that the existing polls exaggerate the support rate for the Vice President. Unlike most armchair political commentators, he put his money where his mouth is, betting over $30 million on Trump’s victory. On election night, as the results became clearer, Théo appeared very excited. He stated that he woke up at midnight in France to check the election results and felt very pleased with his judgment.

Before the election day, Théo predicted that Trump would receive 49% or 50% of the votes nationwide, defeating his opponent. He also predicted that Trump would win six out of the seven battleground states. As of the afternoon of the second day after the election, analysts predicted that Trump indeed won the popular vote, receiving nearly 72 million votes, while his opponent received 67.1 million votes, although there were still a large number of uncounted ballots in some states. The betting market also generally believes that Trump's victory in the popular vote is almost a foregone conclusion.

Théo stated that he used his own funds to bet on Trump purely for the purpose of making money, "absolutely no political motives whatsoever." However, the media could not confirm the authenticity of these claims, nor could they rule out the possibility of any connections between Théo and any political organizations or Trump allies.

In multiple exchanges, Théo has repeatedly criticized the American polling system. He believes that polls conducted by mainstream media often lean towards one side, making it easy to produce anomalous results. He stated: "In France, the situation is different; the credibility of polls is higher: polling agencies want the results to be as close to reality as possible. There is indeed a cultural difference in this regard."

Théo shared a data table he compiled based on the average values of polls from a certain political website, showing that Trump performed excellently in the 2020 swing state polls. Considering that the poll results for the 2024 swing states are very close, Théo inferred that if Trump can achieve similar outstanding performance, he will easily take the lead.

Théo believes that polls fail to accurately reflect the so-called "shy voter effect." He thinks that either Trump supporters are unwilling to express their true leanings to pollsters or they are simply unwilling to participate in polls at all. To address this issue, Théo suggests using the "neighbor polling method," which involves asking respondents which candidate they expect their neighbors to support. The idea behind this method is that while people may be reluctant to directly reveal their preferences, their guesses about their neighbors' voting intentions may indirectly reflect their own true thoughts.

Théo cited several polls that used the neighbor voting method, which showed that when asking about neighbors' voting intentions, the incumbent vice president's support rate was several percentage points lower than when directly asking individuals about their support rate. For Théo, this proves that polling agencies have once again underestimated Trump's actual support rate. This data supports his decision to bet on Trump winning the popular vote.

On election night while celebrating the victory, Théo revealed another key factor he successfully predicted. He stated that he commissioned a large polling agency to conduct a neighbor effect survey, and the results were "stunning and very favorable to Trump." Although he refused to disclose specific details, he believes that American polling agencies should widely adopt this method in the future to improve prediction accuracy.

Théo finally stated: "If the latest polls can adequately take into account the neighbor effect, the election predictions will be clearer and more accurate."