ARK Invest Releases 2024 "Big Ideas" Report: Bitcoin Expected to Reach $1.5 Million by 2030, AI Agents Bring Groundbreaking Changes

ARK Invest released its 2024 "Big Ideas" report, covering technological development trends in 11 fields, including artificial intelligence, Bitcoin, public chains, robotics, energy storage, and autonomous driving. The report predicts that by 2030, the price of Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million, and AI Agents will bring about revolutionary changes.

1. Bitcoin: The Global Currency System is Becoming More Mature

• Bitcoin reached a new historical high in 2024
• Bitcoin spot ETFs have become one of the most successful ETF products in history.
• After the 4th halving, the Bitcoin inflation rate fell below the long-term supply growth rate of gold.
• Bitcoin's annual volatility has dropped to a historic low, but risk-adjusted returns still outperform most major assets.
• Despite a significant drop in miner income after the halving, Bitcoin's hash rate has hit an all-time high.
• Driven by the Runes protocol, Bitcoin's daily trading volume has soared to an all-time high.
• In 2024, Bitcoin successfully absorbed a large amount of selling pressure from the German government and Mt. Gox.
• More and more listed companies hold Bitcoin, with a total value increasing from 11 billion dollars in 2023 to 55 billion dollars.
• The total cost basis of Bitcoin in 2024 reaches a historical high of 811.7 billion dollars.
• Bitcoin transaction speed has dropped to its lowest level in 14 years, highlighting its value storage function.
• ARK predicts that the price of Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030.

2. The Accelerated Development of Artificial Intelligence Computing

• By 2030, AI computing performance is expected to improve by more than 1000 times per dollar.
• AI drives the widespread adoption of autonomous taxis, accelerates drug development, and AI Agents solve software engineering challenges.
• The progress of neural networks accelerates the development of other disruptive technologies.
• AI, energy storage, and public chain advancements are crucial for technological progress.
• Technological inflection points may lead to a stepwise increase in GDP growth.
• The market capitalization of innovative enterprises may exceed 2/3 of the global stock market.

3. AI Agent: Redefining Consumer Interaction and Business Processes

• The AI Agent understands intentions through natural language, takes action using tools, and continuously learns and improves.
• OpenAI's revenue may exceed $10 billion in 2025, growing faster than social media companies in the past decade.
• AI Agent will change the way consumers search and discover.
• By 2030, AI advertising revenue could account for over 54% of the digital advertising market.
• By 2030, AI shopping may account for 25% of global online consumer spending.
• Digital wallets are expected to continue to expand their share in e-commerce, potentially accounting for 72% of e-commerce transactions by 2030.
• The AI Agent can generate a global revenue of 40 to 200 billion USD for digital wallet platforms by 2030.
• The AI Agent will enhance enterprise productivity through software.
• The decrease in AI costs will significantly impact the economic benefits of AI Agents.
• AI is reshaping the software value chain, accelerating the software development cycle.

4. Stablecoins: Reshaping the Digital Asset Space

• In 2024, the trading volume of stablecoins will exceed that of Mastercard and Visa.
• In December 2024, the daily trading volume of stablecoins reached a new high of 270 billion USD.
• Ethena Labs locks a total value of 6 billion USD within 12 months.
• The supply of stablecoins in 2024 reached a new high of 203 billion USD, with active addresses reaching 23 million.
• Digital assets are undergoing "stablecoinization" and "dollarization"
• Peer-to-peer trading and personal wallet storage account for the main uses of stablecoins.
• The four major stablecoin issuers dominate digital asset revenue
• Tether's profit in the first half of 2024 is 5.2 billion USD, with extremely high capital efficiency.
• The demand for US Treasuries as collateral increases with stablecoins.
• Stablecoin issuers begin to transfer risk-free interest rates to users.
• By 2030, stablecoins may reach 1.4 trillion USD, accounting for 0.9% of the global M2 supply.

!["Wood Sister" Heavyweight Crypto Report: Bitcoin will reach $1.5 million, AI Agent brings epoch-making changes](