As the third quarter of 2023 approaches its end, the cryptocurrency market shows an interesting pattern. Bitcoin (BTC) exhibits a relatively stable stance, although the increase is moderate (around 5% to 10%), it is worth noting that its volatility has dropped to its lowest point of the year. Meanwhile, some altcoins, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence, tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), and meme coins, have experienced significant increases, attracting the attention of many investors.

However, on-chain data shows that long-term holders are still accumulating BTC, and the stock of BTC on exchanges continues to decline, which may indicate limited selling pressure in the future. This "silent accumulation period" is often a precursor to a major market movement. It is worth noting that the current altcoin frenzy may be difficult to sustain, and once BTC starts to rise strongly, funds are likely to flow back quickly.

Looking back at historical data, there is a remarkable correlation between the third and fourth quarters. In the past six instances where the third quarter showed an upward trend, the fourth quarter continued to rise in five cases, with a probability of 83%. The average increase in the fourth quarter even exceeds 100%, with October to November often being a critical period for surges. The only exception was in 2019, when the macroeconomic recession and concentrated selling by miners disrupted this pattern.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2023, there are three major factors that could drive the strength of Bitcoin: First, the inflow of funds into spot ETFs is accelerating, with a current daily net inflow exceeding $200 million. If institutional investors continue to increase their allocation, it could trigger a liquidity-driven bull market. Second, there may be a shift in Federal Reserve policy, with market expectations for interest rate cuts from September to December heating up, which would benefit risk assets like Bitcoin. Finally, historically speaking, a major upward trend usually occurs 6 to 8 months after a Bitcoin halving, which coincides with the fourth quarter of 2024.

Nevertheless, investors should remain cautious, closely monitor market changes, and manage risks appropriately. The high volatility of the encryption currency market means that past patterns may not fully repeat, and external factors such as the global economic environment and regulatory policies can have a significant impact on the market.