Labubu: The Rise of a Niche IP to a Global Phenomenon in Trendy Toys

Labubu is a fictional IP character that was born in 2015, created by an artist from Hong Kong. This character combines elements of dark elves from Norse mythology with Eastern aesthetics, forming a unique "ugly-cute" style that subverts the traditional sweetness paradigm of toys.

Initially, Labubu circulated as a picture book character within niche circles. In 2019, after collaborating with a toy company to launch a blind box, it quickly rose from the art world to become a globally recognized trendy toy IP.

In April 2024, a well-known girl group member showcased her Labubu doll on social media, calling it "my baby," which sparked a buying frenzy in Southeast Asia, causing prices in the Thai market to soar to seven times the original price.

Subsequently, multiple international stars began to hang Labubu on luxury bags, elevating this trend from an ordinary toy to a "luxury accessory," which triggered global enthusiasm and caused the market price to soar several times.

On June 10th, a unique first-generation mint green Labubu appeared at an auction, selling for a high price of 1.08 million yuan. This event propelled the related company's stock price to a historic high, with an increase of nearly 10 times within a year, making the company's founder the local billionaire.

This phenomenon inevitably brings to mind the NFT craze that swept the globe a few years ago. Both benefit from the celebrity effect, both have set sky-high prices at auctions, and both have experienced a nationwide frenzy. The difference is that one is a physical asset, while the other is a virtual asset.

In-depth analysis reveals that both have many similarities in their spiritual core. For example, they both stimulate consumers' "fear of missing out" (FOMO) by creating scarcity; at the same time, both rely on social media for dissemination, with Labubu fans showcasing hidden items on social platforms and NFT players setting their collectibles as avatars, both exhibiting strong social attributes.

So, will Labubu repeat the mistakes of NFTs? From experiencing the hype of a booming market, ultimately returning to calm, and even facing a bleak situation after the bubble bursts? After all, NFT avatars that were once worth millions have now lost 90% of their value.

Looking back at the development history of other classic IPs of the toy company, we can see some clues. For example, MOLLY, the company's first blockbuster IP (born in 2006), created scarcity through cross-border collaborations with luxury goods and trendy brands, with some co-branded models priced over ten thousand yuan, and a 300% premium in the second-hand market. However, the popularity cycle of the new series has shortened to 6-12 months, with some styles' prices halved compared to their peak period.

Another IP called SKULLPANDA has seen its resale price drop by 40% within six months due to a surge in supply.

Although we cannot comprehensively compare the price fluctuations of all the company's IPs, some representative IPs have generally returned to calm after experiencing market speculation, and there has been a significant price correction, which is quite similar to the development trajectory of NFTs.

Currently, on the second-hand market, the LABUBU, originally priced at 599 yuan, has been speculated to nearly 15,000 yuan. This inevitably brings to mind another trendy toy, the building bear, which was all the rage over a decade ago. At that time, a collaboration with a luxury brand fetched a high price of 220,000 yuan, but now most models are only priced at 30%-50% of their original price. So, can Labubu escape such a fate?

History seems to have provided the answer. After all, no matter how brilliant the narrative, there will always come a day of reckoning. At present, it seems that only Bitcoin has not broken this curse.

It is worth noting that the scarcity of Labubu mainly relies on the official description to shape it. In contrast, NFTs inherently possess absolute scarcity, which cannot be cracked or artificially interfered with. From this perspective, the combination of NFTs and Labubu may be more worth attention, but that is another topic worth discussing.