Whale Holdings Analysis: Divergence between Mainstream Token Long Positions and Altcoin Short Positions

In the rapidly changing cryptocurrency market, the movements of large funds are often seen as important indicators of market trends. By analyzing the latest leaderboard data from a certain decentralized derivatives exchange, we can glimpse the true flow of "smart money." As of July 30, the whales on this exchange's leaderboard have opened positions worth $4.6 billion, with long positions dominating at $3 billion. However, beneath this seemingly optimistic overall data lies a starkly contrasting strategy divergence: traders are bullish on mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, while simultaneously taking large short positions on numerous alts and MEME coins. What does this significant differentiation signal for the market direction?

Overall Trend: Long positions dominate, but enthusiasm has cooled down.

From a macro data perspective, long positions currently hold the upper hand. As of July 30, the total holdings of top traders are approximately $4.6 billion, with long positions around $3 billion and short positions about $1.57 billion, resulting in an overall long-short ratio of approximately 66%.

However, beneath the optimistic data lies a cautious signal. First, the long positions trend has shown a downward trend, with the long-short ratio falling from the peak of 76% on July 27. Secondly, in terms of profit efficiency, the performance of short positions is more outstanding: among the tokens that whales are shorting, as much as 79% of the positions are in profit; while among the tokens they are going long on, this ratio is only 53.5%. This indicates that although whales generally tend to be bullish, their short-term bearish decisions are more likely to be profitable.

In addition, a certain data platform shows that among the top 125 wallet addresses of the exchange, short positions have also turned into main force, which differs from the smaller wallet addresses. The positions of smaller amount addresses generally still indicate a bullish outlook.

Whale Big Data: Mainstream Bullish, Alts Bearish

The core strategic divergence among whales is reflected in their token selection, presenting a clear picture of "holding mainstream tokens and shorting alts."

In terms of mainstream assets, whales have shown a strong bullish stance. Taking BTC and ETH, which have the highest positions, as examples, their long-short ratios far exceed 66%. Specifically for BTC, the total amount of long positions reaches 1.2 billion USD, while short positions are only 479 million USD. Interestingly, the average liquidation distance for short positions is 48.3%, much higher than the 14% for long positions, suggesting that many short orders may not simply be bearish, but are hedging orders for risk management. Moreover, tokens like TON (19.83 million USD position) and AAVE (25.18 million USD position) also have high long-short ratios, making them some of the few alts favored by whales.

However, the attitudes of whales towards altcoins and MEME coins are completely opposite. A series of tokens, including FARTCOIN, PUMP, DOGE, SUI, BONK, PEPE, and even BNB, all have a long-to-short ratio below 50%, indicating that short positions dominate. For tokens like MOODENG, SYRUP, S, and JUP, the long-to-short ratio is even below 10%, showing extreme bearish sentiment. These short positions are generally in a profitable state, reaffirming the effectiveness of the whales' short selling decisions.

Specifically regarding BTC data, 71.7% of the top traders are holding long positions, with a total of 1.2 billion USD in long positions. The average entry price is approximately 114,000 USD, and the average liquidation distance is 14%, currently generating a total profit of 27.82 million USD. In terms of short positions, the data shows a significant decrease, amounting to about 479 million USD, with an average entry price of 115,000 USD; however, the average liquidation distance is still at 48.3%, indicating that Whale short positions seem to be more inclined towards hedging orders.

In terms of position size, the whales of BTC have an average long position of 10 million dollars, while the average short position is about 7.98 million dollars.

Top Traders: Long positions are bullish, short positions are on hold or shorting

In addition to the overall data, the attitudes of top traders also seem to provide some insight into the market sentiment.

The trader with the highest profit currently has a total profit of approximately 54.86 million dollars. This trader's profit curve has been overall upward since December 2024, indicating that they are a relatively stable and durable trader.

His holdings are currently relatively balanced in terms of total amount, with both short positions and long positions at around 63 million USD. In terms of specific token choices, he mostly holds short positions, with a few long positions. Among them, the position with the highest unrealized profit is FARTCOIN, which was shorted at 1.44 USD, and the current unrealized profit has reached 1.12 million USD. Of his 16 profitable orders, only 2 are long positions with unrealized profit. AAVE has an unrealized profit of 976,000 USD. From his positions, it is basically consistent with big data, maintaining long positions on BTC and ETH, but looking bearish on alts in the short term.

The second-ranked trader currently has profits of approximately $35 million. This trader obviously maintains a long-term optimistic outlook on the market, with all of his positions being long positions and an overall leverage of only 3.6 times. From a cyclical perspective, this trader is clearly a long-term trader, with an opening price of $2,812 for his long positions in ETH, $110,000 for BTC long positions, and $142 for SOL, almost all being held for the long term. However, his long-term long positions have not all realized profits, with a floating loss of $235,000 for FARTCOIN, $45,000 for BIGTIME, and a floating loss of $18,000 for STRK. The remaining orders are all in profit, with his ETH long position alone yielding a floating profit of $7.21 million.

The floating profit of the third largest trader has reached 40 million USD (in fact, he should be the second trader in floating profit). Among this trader's positions, 78% are short positions. This trader seems to be a short-term trader, with an average holding time of less than 2 hours. Currently, his positions are not large, and he appears to be in a wait-and-see state regarding the market.

From the holdings of these traders, long positions traders still maintain an optimistic outlook for the future, while short positions traders tend to be more bearish or reduce their positions and wait.

In summary, the whale data depicts a market landscape of "sticking to mainstream tokens and shorting alts." Although the overall positions lean towards long positions, this bullish sentiment is primarily concentrated on a few core assets such as BTC and ETH, and its advantage has shown a downward trend. Meanwhile, whales not only have numerous short positions on altcoins but also a higher profit ratio, indicating their general bearish outlook on high-risk assets and effective harvesting. From the perspective of top traders' personal strategies, long-term investors remain optimistic and patient, while short-term traders tend to be more cautious about shorting or holding coins on the sidelines. For ordinary investors, understanding this "two-sided" strategy of whales may be more important than simply following the long or short directions.