Bitcoin Halving One Year Later: Significant Market Changes Observed

Bitcoin has been a year since the last Halving event, and this cycle presents a drastically different situation compared to previous years. Unlike the explosive increases seen after past Halvings, this time Bitcoin's increase has been relatively moderate, rising only 31%, while the increase during the same period in the last cycle was as high as 436%.

At the same time, indicators for long-term holders (such as the MVRV ratio) show a sharp decline in unrealized profits, indicating that the market is maturing and upward potential is being compressed. Overall, these changes suggest that Bitcoin may be entering a new phase characterized not by parabolic peaks, but by more institution-driven gradual growth.

Bitcoin Halving One Year Later: Unique Cycle Performance

The development of this round of Bitcoin cycle is obviously different from the past, which may indicate that the market's reaction to the Halving event is changing.

In the early cycles (especially from 2012 to 2016, and from 2016 to 2020), Bitcoin often experienced strong surges after Halving. This phase is typically accompanied by strong upward momentum and parabolic price movements, primarily driven by retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.

However, the current cycle has taken a different path. The price did not accelerate upward after the Halving, but instead began to soar in October and December 2024, followed by a consolidation in January 2025 and a correction in late February.

This kind of early-stage upward behavior is drastically different from historical patterns, as previous Halvings typically served as a catalyst for significant price increases.

There are various factors contributing to this shift. Bitcoin is no longer merely a speculative asset driven by retail investors; it is increasingly being seen as a mature financial instrument. The growing participation of institutional investors, coupled with macroeconomic pressures and changes in market structure, has led to a more cautious and complex market response.

Another obvious sign of this evolution is that the intensity of each cycle is weakening. As Bitcoin's market capitalization grows, the explosive growth seen in the early years is becoming increasingly difficult to replicate. For example, in the cycle from 2020 to 2024, Bitcoin increased by 436% a year after the Halving. In contrast, the increase during the same period in this cycle was only 31%, which is much more moderate.

This change may signify that Bitcoin is entering a new phase characterized by reduced volatility and more stable long-term growth. Halving may no longer be the primary driver, as other factors such as interest rates, liquidity, and institutional funds are playing a greater role.

It is worth noting that previous cycles have also gone through consolidation and pullback phases before recovering the upward trend. Although this phase may feel slow or lacking in stimulation, it may represent a healthy adjustment before the next round of increase.

This cycle may still continue to deviate from historical patterns. It may not experience a dramatic top bubble burst, but rather exhibit a more sustained and structurally solid upward trend, driven more by fundamentals than by speculation.

Long-term Holder MVRV Ratio Reveals Bitcoin Market Maturity

The market value of Long-Term Holders (LTH) and the MVRV ratio have always been reliable indicators for measuring unrealized profits. It shows the profits that long-term investors have gained before they start selling. However, over time, this value is declining.

During the cycle from 2016 to 2020, the LTH MVRV ratio peaked at 35.8, indicating significant unrealized profits and a clear formation of a top. In the cycle from 2020 to 2024, this peak sharply declined to 12.2, despite Bitcoin reaching an all-time high at that time.

During this period, the highest LTH MVRV ratio so far is only 4.35, a significant decrease. This indicates that the returns for long-term holders are far lower than in previous cycles, despite the substantial increase in Bitcoin prices. This trend is clear: the return multiples for each cycle are declining.

The explosive upward space for Bitcoin is being compressed, and the market is maturing.

This is not a coincidence. As the market matures, explosive returns are naturally harder to achieve. The era of extreme, cyclical-driven profit multiples may be waning, replaced by more moderate or stable growth.

The continuously growing market size means that exponentially more capital is needed to significantly drive up prices.

However, this does not determine that the peak of this cycle has been reached. Previous cycles usually include long periods of consolidation or slight pullback stages before reaching new highs.

As institutional investors play an increasingly important role, the accumulation phase may last longer. Therefore, the sell-off of peak profits may not be as sudden as in earlier cycles.

However, if the MVRV ratio peak decline trend continues, this may reinforce the view that Bitcoin is transitioning from a frenzied, cyclical surge to a more moderate but structured growth model.

The most intense price increases may have already passed, especially for investors who entered the market late in the cycle.