Is BTC about to experience a big pullback???

Conclusion: Hourly period, 4-hour period, Sideways bearish #btc

1. Overall Analysis

Recently, the price has been in a state of sideways consolidation, oscillating within a range without breaking through the key upper and lower areas. The market has a relatively balanced force between bulls and bears, with weak momentum in the short term.

• Short-term outlook: Based on the comprehensive analysis of the K-line patterns and indicators, the market trend is slightly weak with a sideways tendency in the short term. The KDJ indicator shows signs of stabilization in the oversold area, and prices are expected to rebound near the support level; however, the MACD shows a bearish bias, with selling pressure still dominating the market, and prices may further test the strength of the lower support region.
• In the medium term: In the medium term, the market direction is not clear. Both the BBI and MA moving averages show a sideways consolidation, and the market needs a strong breakthrough or new driving force to determine its direction; if the price can break through the resistance level of the consolidation range, a new upward trend may begin. However, if the support level is broken, the market may test the next key support area.
• Suggestion：
  1. Conservative Strategy: The current market trend is not clear, it is recommended that investors adopt a wait-and-see approach, and follow the trend after the price clearly breaks through the key range (resistance level 119415.55 and support level 117762.04).
  2. Aggressive Strategy: If investors prefer short-term trading, they can tentatively test long positions near the support level of 117762.04, setting a stop-loss below 116305.95, while paying attention to the long position reduction point at the resistance level of 119415.55. If the price breaks down below 116305.95, they may consider shorting moderately, targeting lower support areas.
  3. Key Focus：
     • Did the price break through the upper and lower bounds of the rectangle consolidation?
     • Is the ADX value starting to rise significantly, indicating that the trend is strengthening.
     • Does the KDJ oversold rebound have the strength to support the price increase?
     • Pay attention to the impact of major industry news or capital flows on the market.

The overall market sentiment is currently cautious. It is recommended that investors strictly control their positions and set stop-loss orders to cope with potential directional breakthroughs.

2. Technical Analysis

• Candlestick pattern: Dark Cloud Cover (daily level), the Doji appears at the top of the range and may indicate a short-term reversal, while the Flat Bottom (daily level) shows a support area.
• BBI: The moving averages are intertwined, and the price is close to the BBI operation, indicating that the market is in a sideways consolidation. The position of BBI forms dynamic support.
• KDJ: The K and D values are hovering at low levels, while the J value fluctuates violently, suggesting an oversold state but brewing a rebound.
• MA: The short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average, indicating a bearish arrangement. The moving averages converging and intertwining suggest a sideways trend with no clear direction.
• MACD: DIF and DEA are below the zero line, the green energy bars are strengthening, and the bearish dominant trend is relatively weak.
• ADX Trend Confirmation: ADX < 20, +DI and -DI alternate interspersed, reflecting a sideways phase, with no clear trend direction.